Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Rays Odds
On Tuesday afternoon, the MLB Postseason will begin with a battle between the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Wild Card round. Texas will hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery in the series opener, who will be opposed by Tyler Glasnow for Tampa Bay. First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 PM ET from Tropicana Field.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rays as -150 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
Jordan Montgomery looking to build on post-deadline success
Jordan Montgomery excelled after being acquired by the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline, to the tune of a 2.79 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and a 1.09 WHIP across 11 starts . Notably, Montgomery threw his sinker and changeup less often to righties after being traded to Texas, opting instead for increased curveball usage. Across the final two months of the season, righties posted a .127 batting average against the offering, with only three extra-base hits. Montgomery is likely to see nine righties in the Rays lineup on Tuesday afternoon.
Rangers’ offense looks to stay hot
On the season, Texas ranked 3rd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 8th in walk percentage, and 14th in strikeout rate against RHP. Though season-long statistics can sometimes be misleading, the Rangers’ offense was just as potent down the stretch against RHP, ranking 3rd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 2nd in walk percentage, and 13th in strikeout rate from September 1st until the end of the regular season.
Can Texas’ bullpen protect a late lead?
If Texas had one discernible weakness this season, it was their arm barn. During the regular season, the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 22nd in FIP, 13th in WHIP, 19th in strikeout rate, and 6th in walk percentage. Texas was just as vulnerable in the late innings down the stretch, ranking 23rd in FIP, 17th in WHIP, 11th in strikeout rate, and 19th in walk percentage in September. This is one area of the game in which Texas is thoroughly outmatched in this Wild Card series against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tyler Glasnow limping into October?
In six September starts, Tyler Glasnow ostensibly struggled to a 4.86 ERA, but a 2.45 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 35.6% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk percentage suggests he was far more unlucky than anything else during that stretch. In September, Glasnow still only allowed a 5.2% barrel rate and pounded the strike zone with a 71.1% first-pitch strike ratio. All of his underlying peripherals, including his velocity and spin rates, remained strong. Glasnow’s primary concern will be locating fastballs early in counts against an aggressive Texas offense. If he can avoid costly mistakes in 0-0 counts, he should be able to turn in a strong outing – easier said than done.
Tampa Bay offense surging into the playoffs
Across the final month of the regular season, the Rays’ offense mashed LHP, ranking 3rd in OPS, 4th in ISO, 15th in walk percentage, and 12th in strikeout rate. Many of Tampa Bay’s hitters in their projected starting lineup have also performed well against Montgomery’s most dynamic pitch, his curveball. Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez, Christian Bethancourt, and Isaac Paredes each posted a .326 wOBA or better against left-handed curveballs this season, with Diaz and Ramirez having a .475 wOBA and .530 wOBA, respectively. Tampa Bay should be able to put some runs on the board in the early portion of this game.
Cash in the late innings
The largest advantage that manager Kevin Cash has in this series is his bullpen. Since September 1st, the Rays’ relief unit ranks 2nd in FIP, 4th in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout rate, and 2nd in walk percentage. If Tampa Bay can get reasonably strong outings from their starting pitching and take a lead into the 6th inning, it is going to be extremely difficult for Texas to overcome a deficit.
Rangers vs. Rays – Picks & Predictions
According to Baseball Savant, the Texas offense had the 4th-highest first-pitch swing rate of any team in the big leagues this season. Facing Glasnow, who reliably pounds the zone with first-pitch fastballs, it stands to reason that the Rangers’ offense will be very aggressive early in counts on Tuesday. Glasnow allowed a .533 batting average on first pitch balls in play in September and a .333 batting average in such instances in August. Do not be surprised if Texas gets out to an early lead to begin these playoffs.
LEAN: Over 3.5 – First 5 Innings (-130, Fanatics Sportsbook)
PICK: Rangers Team Total Over 0.5 Runs – First 3 Innings (-135, DraftKings)
