MLB Wild Card Best Bets for Game 1: Blue Jays vs Twins and Rays vs Rangers

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s backing the Toronto Blue Jays ace, Kevin Gausman against the Minnesota Twins, plus who wins Game 1 between the Rays and Rangers.

Kevin Gausman O/U 15.5 Outs vs. Twins

The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins meet for Game 1 and the pitching duel is Kevin Gausman versus Pablo Lopez.

Gausman has started two career playoff games and went 5.1 (16 outs) and 5.2 innings (17 outs) versus the Giants in 2021 and Mariners in 2022.

The Blue Jays ace recorded seven strikeouts in each career postseason start, walked four, and allowed four earned runs in each (8 total) on nine combined hits. I think this will be his best playoff start versus a swing-and-miss squad like Minnesota.

The Minnesota Twins totaled the most strikeouts on the season (,1654), the 21st-ranked batting average (.243), but the 10th-most RBIs (745). The Twins can score runs in bunches due to power hitters, but the majority of the team will swing and miss.

If Gausman stays under two earned runs, he should go 15-plus outs or five-plus innings of work. Most models I use project him between 16-17 outs for this Wild Card meeting.

In his career, Gausman has owns 106 plate appearances against current Twins’ hitters for a 30.2 K%, .239 OBA, and 32 strikeouts to 10 walks. Only Michael Taylor, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Donovan Solano, and Christian Vasquez are the only hitters to see Gausman 10 or more times.

I played Gausman Over 15.5 Outs at -125 odds and would go to 16.5 at +100 for a 0.5 unit.

Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 15.5 Outs (Risk 1u)

Rangers (+125) at Rays (-150): O/U 7.5

The pitching duel is Tyler Glasnow versus Jordan Montgomery, which benefits the Rays.

Montgomery is an LHP and owns 83 plate appearances versus Tampa for a .264 OBA, 15.7 K%, and a 12% walk percentage. For Glasnow, in a smaller sample size, the Rays’ pitcher has 44 plate appearances against Texas for a .189 OBA (7 hits), a 29.5 K%, and not one Ranger facing him 10-plus times.

In Glasnow’s postseason career, he made nine starts since 2019 and went 5.0 or more innings five times.

In 2022, Glasnow allowed zero earned runs against Cleveland in the postseason and that was the second-ever postseason start with zero earned runs. Tampa Bay also has a healthier bullpen, which will come in handy.

Texas has one of the most explosive offenses but historically has struggled against Glasnow. I will side with the home team and back the Rays on the ML at -150 odds.

Pick: Rays ML (Risk 1u)

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