Rangers vs. Rays prediction: Pick, odds for Game 1 of Wild Card series in 2023 MLB playoffs

The MLB playoffs begin with a bang this afternoon, as the No. 5 Texas Rangers take their high-octane offense east for Game 1 of this best-of-three Wild Card series against the No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg is set for 3:08 p.m. ET. Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while Tampa counters with hard-throwing righty Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53).

The Rays enter as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Texas at +130. The run total is set at 7.5.

Rangers-Rays Wild Card Game 1 picks: Tuesday, October 3

Injury report

Rangers

Out: SP Max Scherzer (shoulder), SP Jon Gray (forearm)

Rays

Questionable: OF Jose Siri (hand), 1B/OF Luke Raley (cervical strain)Doubtful: RP Jason Adam (oblique)

Out: 2B Brandon Lowe (knee)

Starting pitchers

Jordan Montgomery vs. Tyler Glasnow

While the rest of the Rangers’ rotation was collapsing in real time — injuries to Scherzer, Gray and Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Martin Perez struggling for consistency — Montgomery was an absolute workhorse, closing his season with four straight quality starts and just two combined runs allowed over his last 27 innings. That included seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays and two gems against the Mariners with the AL West hanging in the balance, so the lefty should have no problem pitching when the lights are brightest. Montgomery pitched to a 2.79 ERA overall after coming to Texas at the trade deadline, and now he finds himself getting the ball in Game 1 for just his second career postseason start. His first, coincidentally, also came against the Rays, allowing one run on three hits and three walks over four innings as a member of the Yankees in the 2020 ALDS.

Glasnow, by contrast, looked great to start his 2023 but was a bit shaky in September, allowing 14 runs over his last four starts and finishing with a 4.86 ERA for the month. Of course, his stuff remained as good as ever — he struck out a whopping 48 in just 33.1 innings — but his mistakes wound up getting punished consistently. He did end the season on a high note, striking out nine over five two-hit innings against the Red Sox last week, and it’s hard to be too concerned as long as he’s touching 100 mph with a nasty slider and curveball. He also dominated the Rangers in his one start against Texas this season, allowing one run on just one hit over six innings of work back in early June. Glasnow has yet to translate his explosive stuff to the postseason, where he has a 5.75 ERA in nine career starts.

Over/Under pick

Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz and the Rays hit left-handed pitching as well as anyone, slashing .307/.377/.514 as a team against southpaws in the month of September. Despite Montgomery’s excellent close to the season, I think Tampa will get him for a few runs this afternoon — and that’s not even factoring in what they might do against the Rangers bullpen, which is the sketchiest of any of the 12 postseason teams. Combine that with Glasnow’s recent combustability and a Texas offense that still packs a major punch, and I think we’re headed for the over today.

Pick: Over 7.5

Moneyline pick

Texas knows that it has to win this game if it has any chance of stealing this series; after Montgomery, their pitching options are a clearly-diminished Eovaldi, Dane Dunning on short rest or one of several uninspiring arms like Heaney or Perez. With their sturdy left on the mound, this is their best chance to snatch a game ... and yet, I think Glasnow and the Rays bats will be too much. The Rangers simply don’t have enough reliable relief arms outside of Aroldis Chapman (bullpen ERA last month: 5.28), and I think that costs them in what becomes a bit of a slugfest late.