Raptors betting trends: Anunoby, Toronto dominating at home
The Toronto Raptors are safely within the play-in bubble but advancing to the No. 6 seed isn’t completely outside the realm of possibilities.
Toronto bounced back from a tough West Coast road trip by winning six of its last eight games, all of which came at Scotiabank Arena. This team has startling home/away splits and we’ll look at those as well as some player trends worth keeping an eye on.
Here are the latest Raptors betting trends to know before Toronto winds down its regular season.
Raptors betting trends
Home Sweet home
The Raptors have been unstoppable at Scotiabank Arena for the better part of two months.
Toronto has won 10 of its last 11 home games and covered the spread in eight of those contests (8-2-1). In that span, the Raptors have the sixth-best home net rating (10.1) and the fifth-best home defensive rating (109.5).
That’s great but this team isn’t going to have a home-court advantage in the playoffs — assuming they make it there — and that’s a problem.
For as good as Toronto has been at home, it has been almost as bad on the road.
The Raptors have the fifth-worst win percentage on the road this season (12-24, 33.0%) and the fifth-worst ATS rate (14-21-1, 40.0%). It might seem puzzling that Toronto is that bad considering its -2.1 road net rating this season ranks a middling 15th.
But that’s because the team can’t close games on the road. The Raptors have the ninth-worst fourth-quarter road net rating (-4.6) and that results in plenty of heartbreaking losses.
This team is worth backing at home but on the road, not so much.
Anunoby is back
O.G. Anunoby started 2023 off on the wrong foot. He averaged just 12.5 points per game in January and then missed most of February with an injury. Things were not looking good for the young swingman and his name began to circulate in trade rumours.
But Masai Ujiri held faith and a March resurgence has piqued our interest.
Anunoby is back to filling the basket at a pretty consistent rate. He’s averaging 18.9 PPG this month, which is the second-highest total since November (21.2). In that span, Anunoby has recorded 15 points in 10 of his 13 games.
He’s also scored 20-plus points six times, including in each of his past two games.
The most encouraging part of his recent play has to be his performance from beyond the arc. Anunoby has shot a killer 47.6% from 3-point range this month and is averaging 3.1 makes per game from deep.
That type of production is huge for a Raptors team that isn’t getting the most out of their traditional 3-point shooters (more on that later).
He’s also still a menace on defence, though that was to be expected. Anunoby is averaging 1.7 steals and 0.6 blocks per game this month. Look to capitalize on his points prop moving forward.
Raptors betting trends: VanVleet the facilitator
We mentioned in our last Raptors betting trends that Fred VanVleet has settled into a role as an elite facilitator. That still rings true several weeks later.
The 29-year-old has averaged 8.4 assists in his 14 games since the all-star break which is nearly two higher than the 6.6 he was averaging in the 50 games prior.
VanVleet has put up at least seven assists in 11 of those 14 games and has recorded double-digit helpers four times in that span.
That makes up for his shooting, which has been spotty at best this month and downright poor throughout the season. VanVleet is firing at a 43.1% clip from the field in March and that’s better than his 39.8% season-long mark.
He’s prone to scoring outbursts — he was 8 of 12 from deep against the Denver Nuggets on March 14 — but can also go ice cold. VanVleet is 13 for 40 from 3-point land in his last four games.
We would recommend backing FVV in the assist department but urge bettors to stay away from his scoring-based props.
Board man gets paid
Maybe our header is a little hyperbolic. Jakob Poeltl is no Kawhi Leonard but Toronto’s centre has been eating on the glass lately.
He’s recorded double-digit rebounds in eight of his past 10 games and is averaging 9.9 rebounds per game in March. That rate, as of March 29, is the 13th-best in basketball but is basically inside the league’s top seven.
There are six players between Poeltl and Clint Capela (11.1 rebounds/game) that are averaging between 10.0 and 10.2 rebounds this month.
He’s been a little spotty on the offensive side of the ball lately, scoring fewer than five points in two of his past three games but that is most likely an anomaly.
Betting on Poeltl to record a double-double or clear a 9.5 rebound line has been a solid play for a while and will likely continue to be one.
