Raptors picks and props vs. Hawks Feb. 23: Bet on Toronto to cover, Barnes to fill basket

The Toronto Raptors look to make it two wins in as many nights coming out of the all-star break.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors laid a beating on the Brooklyn Nets yesterday and are 7-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Atlanta has been awful against the spread as a favourite this season, which has me backing Toronto to cover. Scottie Barnes should also fill the basket.

NBA oddsas of 12:40 p.m. ET on 02/23/2024.

Raptors picks vs. Hawks

Best Bet: Raptors +7 (-113)

The Raptors are far from trustworthy but the Hawks are even worse.

Atlanta is a league-worst 17-38 ATS this season and is a laughable 9-21 ATS when pegged as a favourite. The Hawks' 30.9% cover rate is on pace to be the worst since Team Rankings began tracking in 2003-2004.

For context, the 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats — widely considered to be the worst team of all time — covered the spread in 33.9% of their games.

The main reason why Atlanta is so bad is because of its defence, or lack thereof.

It ranks second-to-last in both points allowed per game (123.9) and defensive rating (120.0). The Hawks are 2-4 in their last six games and are giving up 127.6 PPG in that span. They also are 1-5 ATS against this number in those contests.

Toronto is 3-3 in its past six games and has covered this number in four of those contests.

Key stat: Toronto and Atlanta have played three times this season and the Raptors have covered this number twice.

Quick pick

Barnes over 20.5 points (-122): Everyone scores on the Hawks, and Barnes has been no exception.

Toronto's all-star small forward has cleared this line in all three meetings versus Atlanta while shooting 65.1% from the field in those contests.

Barnes only netted 18 points last night on 7-of-13 shooting, but he was only asked to play 31 minutes in a 28-point victory.

Toronto should be in for a tougher fight tonight, which means Barnes should play more minutes and take more shots.