Raptors picks and props vs. Hawks Jan. 28: Bet on Barrett to fill the basket

A four-game losing streak will be snapped when the Toronto Raptors host the Atlanta Hawks since both teams come in carrying one.

The pregame narrative: This is a pretty uninspiring game between two basement-dwelling teams in a top-heavy Eastern Conference. Neither squad is trustworthy, but Atlanta's awful defence has me backing Toronto to cover as home underdogs and RJ Barrett to score.

See how we're betting on this game in our Raptors picks vs. the Hawks for January 28.

NBA oddsas of 11:03 a.m. ET on 01/28/2024.

Raptors picks and props vs. Hawks

Best Bet: Barrett over 23.5 points (-124)

Barrett should have this matchup circled on his calendar.

The Hawks are one of the league's worst defensive teams, sitting 27th in defensive rating (119.8) while allowing the second-highest opponent field-goal percentage (50.3%).

I could make an argument for most Raptors to clear their point total tonight but Barrett profiles especially well in this matchup. Atlanta is allowing the most points per game to opposing shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

The Canadian has been red-hot over his past six games, averaging 23.0 points on 54.5% shooting. He's put up 20-plus points in five of those games and has cleared this total three times in that span.

Barrett took 19 shots in Friday's loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, and with Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl still sidelined, we should see a similar type of volume tonight.

Simply put, if a player is taking that many shots against Atlanta, they should be in for a huge night.

Key stat: Barrett scored 26 points against the Hawks earlier this season while with the New York Knicks.

Quick pick

Raptors +6.5 (-110): Good teams win, and great teams cover — and Atlanta does neither. The Hawks are a league-worst 11-34 ATS this season, which is actually hard to fathom.

If that 24.4% hit rate holds it would be by far the worst cover percentage in Team Rankings' database, dating back to the 2003-04 season.

And if you thought that was bad, the Hawks are an even worse 5-18 ATS as a favourite (21.7%).

Atlanta has lost 12 of its last 18 games and has only covered this number once in that span. Expect Toronto to show some resistance on the road, where it is 10-11-1 ATS this year.