Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks January 27: Bet on VanVleet to put up assists

The Toronto Raptors are looking to build off an impressive win over the Sacramento Kings when they take on the Golden State Warriors on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Fred VanVleet has been a consistent source of assists this month, Draymond Green is usually good for at least one three and Klay Thompson is scorching hot.

Here are our Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks for January 27.

Odds as of 11:10 a.m. on 01/27/2023.

Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks

Best Bet:Fred VanVleet over 6.5 assists (+108)

We’re always keen to see positive odds on a prop that a player has hit more than half of the time.

That’s the case here as VanVleet has seven or more assists in the narrow majority of his games this season (51.3%).

Toronto’s point guard has been hitting this over at a higher rate in recent weeks, too, as he has seven or more assists in eight of his last 11 starts.

Golden State also presents a promising matchup. The Warriors have the fourth-worst scoring defence in the NBA (118.0 points/game) meaning that a high percentage of VanVleet’s passes should result in buckets.

That was the case when the Raptors faced the Warriors on December 18 and VanVleet was able to rack up eight dimes.

We expect a similar outcome in this one as the steady point guard should be able to dice up Golden State’s suspect defence.

Key stat: Golden State allowed the ninth-most assists to point guards in the NBA, per FantasyPros (8.8 per game)

Quick picks

Green over 0.5 threes (-127): While Green’s 3-point shot isn’t pretty, he’s been consistently hitting at least one three per game in recent weeks. The veteran hit just three 3-pointers in his first 13 games, but he’s managed one in 63.3% of his games since.

The Raptors allow the third-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA (37.4%), and Green is likely to get a couple of open looks in this one with Toronto fixated on Golden State’s other weapons. Expect his clunky jumper to result in at least one 3-pointer.

Thompson over 21.5 points (-105): Thompson has been in and out of the lineup a bit in recent weeks, but whenever he’s been on the court he’s produced. The 32-year-old has averaged 27 points per game in his last 11 appearances, going over this line nine times.

This bet is another way to pick on the Raptors’ subpar perimeter defence as Thompson’s 10.4 threes attempted per game are a career-high and 56.4% of all of his shots have come from beyond the arc.