Ratings predictions: NBA All-Stars, Daytona, XFL and more

Ratings predictions for a busy first weekend post-football, including the NBA All-Star Game, NASCAR’s Daytona 500 and the return of the XFL.

Will NBA All-Star viewership bounce back?

This year marks the 20th anniversary of TNT carrying its first NBA All-Star Game. That 2003 game was a milestone for cable, both in terms of audience (it was the most-watched NBA game ever on cable at the time and still ranks in the top 10) and prestige. The All-Star Game had been a staple of broadcast television and one of the league’s highest-profile events.

Viewing levels have yet to return to that first year in 2003, not coincidentally Michael Jordan’s last All-Star Game. Jordan’s two Wizards-era All-Star games (2002 and 2003) are the only ones since 2000 to crack the ten million mark, exceptions to what was a dramatic decline in viewership over the preceding years. Between 1993 and 2001 — one presidential administration — the All-Star Game lost nearly two-thirds of its audience, dropping from 22.91 to 7.76 million viewers. (Keep in mind this was all during NBC’s tenure, meaning that the decline could not be explained by a network switch.)

Following that Clinton-era freefall and brief Jordan bounce, All-Star Game viewership has stabilized in the six or seven million range for the majority of TNT’s two-decade run, albeit on the lower end of that range of late. Last year’s game was the second-least watched on record with 6.28 million, ahead of only the hastily-scheduled 2021 edition. Of the four least-watched NBA All-Star games, three have come in the past four years.

Can this year’s game buck the trend? The league hopes that moving its All-Star Draft to right before tip-off will help, though it seems likely that anyone interested in the All-Star Draft would be watching the All-Star Game anyway. A bigger help may be the absence of Olympic competition; last year’s game faced the Closing Ceremony, which edged the All-Star Game head-to-head (6.57M).

On the flip side, the absence of the injured Stephen Curry and any of his Golden State teammates will not do the game any favors. The Olympic factor alone may be enough to fuel a viewership uptick from last year, but do not expect much beyond that. Ultimately, the NBA All-Star Game — like its counterparts in baseball and football — is not a growth property. A modest uptick is about the most one can realistically ask.

NBA All-Star Game (8p Sun TNT, TBS). Prediction: 6.54M.

What to expect for the “Great American Race”?

Shifting gears to another sporting event that has lost much of its audience, the Daytona 500 opens the NASCAR season Sunday. After bottoming out at 4.9 million two years ago for a rainy, late-finishing race at the height of the COVID-era sports ratings slump, Daytona bounced back to a far healthier 8.9 million last year. At its height, the 500 topped the 12 million mark in 18 straight years (1996-2013), including eight-straight above the 17 million mark (2001-08). By comparison, fewer than nine million is modest at best. In the current era of television, however, small victories are better than nothing.

As for this year’s race, anything is possible. If one is looking for bellwethers, the preseason “Clash” at the L.A. Coliseum declined double-digits from last year, but the Duel at Daytona scored a modest uptick (and three-year high). The lack of Olympic competition should not be a relevant factor; the Games averaged just 2.26 million in a competing window last year. Viewership may come down to the race itself and who is in contention to win.

NASCAR Daytona 500 (2:30p Sun FOX). Prediction: 8.98M viewers.

Can XFL 3.0 measure up to its predecessor?

Three years ago, the XFL debuted to much fanfare. The league relied heavily on nostalgia for the 2001 edition, with the same logo (albeit recolored) and the same ties to the WWE. The new XFL would try to replicate the same irreverence and elan of the original, sans the more lurid elements. At least on the ratings side, it seemed to work. Three of the four games on its opening weekend averaged more than three million viewers, a fairly remarkable showing given that most spring football leagues see a sharp decline after just one game. It took five weeks before any game slipped under the one million viewer mark (it took the rebooted USFL and Alliance of American Football one day).

It bears noting that the least-watched games had yet to be played when the season was called off due to events beyond the league’s control. One will never know just how low the numbers would have gone. Even so, the five-week sample indicates that XFL 2.0 was, from a ratings perspective, the strongest spring football effort since XFL 1.0.

Can XFL 3.0 recapture the magic? It seems unlikely. There was considerable hype for XFL 2.0, which was announced opportunistically during the NFL’s hyper-scrutinized ratings lull in the late 2010s. There was real build-up — including an ESPN 30 For 30 recalling the original league — and two networks invested in its success (ESPN and Fox).

With that said, it is entirely possible that XFL 3.0 will have a longer and more successful run than its predecessor. The league is still associated with ESPN and ABC, there is enough of an appetite for spring football to get a league to year two (one need only look at the USFL), and the circumstances that doomed the previous XFL were world-historic.

Do not expect viewership to come close to XFL 2.0, but as long as the league can play out its season under normal conditions, it should still do well enough to survive.

XFL: Vegas-Arlington (3p Sat ABC), Orlando-Houston (8:30p Sat ESPN, FX), St. Louis-San Antonio (3p Sun ABC), Seattle-D.C. (8p Sun ESPN). Predictions: 2.48M, 1.43M, 2.00M and 1.07M.

Additional predictions

PGA Tour: third and final round at Riviera (3p Sat & Sun CBS). Tiger Woods’ return has already boosted viewership for the PGA Tour’s annual L.A. stop, with first round coverage the most-watched on record. With Woods making the cut, it seems a borderline lock that viewership will surpass last year (2.13M on Saturday, 2.62M on Sunday). Prediction: 2.26M and 2.91M.

NBA All-Star Saturday Night (8p Sat TNT). The NBA’s annual Saturday night All-Star festivities have been losing their luster for years, and it is starting to show in the viewership. Last year’s event averaged 4.24 million viewers, not bad by any means but the lowest for the event in at least two decades. It is hard to expect much of a rebound, but perhaps the Olympic factor will play a role (last year’s Olympic competition averaged 6.77 million). Prediction: 4.42M.

NHL Stadium Series: Capitals-Hurricanes (8p Sat ABC). ABC airs its first outdoor NHL game this weekend as the Hurricanes host the Capitals in the Stadium Series. Last year’s Stadium Series game aired on TNT and averaged 634,000; this year’s game will easily surpass that mark. Prediction: 1.22M.

Last week’s predictions

— Super Bowl 57: Chiefs-Eagles. Prediction: 38.2 rating, 103.8M viewers on FOX, 2.03M on Fox Deportes, 4.01M streaming, 109.9M across-all-platforms; results: 40.0, 112.7M (FOX), 882K (Fox Deportes), 7.0M (streaming), 113.1M (across-all-platforms).
— NBA: Grizzlies-Celtics. Prediction: 1.2, 2.24M; result: 1.2, 2.07M.
— PGA Tour: final round of Phoenix Open. Prediction: 1.7, 3.02M; result: 2.1, 3.67M.
— WCBB: LSU-South Carolina. Prediction: 613K; result: result: 1.47M.