Rangers vs. Astros prediction: Pick, odds for Game 7 of ALCS in 2023 MLB playoffs

Heading back to Houston for Game 6, it seemed like the Astros had another World Series appearance in the bag, having just ripped the Rangers’ hearts out with a wild comeback win in Game 5. But Texas has been winning on the road all October, and they did it again last night, riding another great start from Nathan Eovaldi and a late offensive surge to a 9-2 win that sets up the most exciting two words in sports: Game 7. After more twists and turns than a roller coaster, these two rivals will play one more to settle things, with a trip to the Fall Classic on the line. The Rangers will give the ball to Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77 ERA) hoping he can improve on his Game 3 start, while Houston goes with righty Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56).

The Astros enter as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Texas at +105. The run total is set at 9.

Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 7 picks: Monday, Oct. 23

Injury report

Astros

N/A

Rangers

N/A

Starting pitchers

Max Scherzer vs. Cristian Javier

Kudos to Scherzer for making it back to the mound after over a month out with a shoulder strain, but in his first start in this series ... well, he looked like a guy who’d missed over a month with a shoulder strain. His stuff wasn’t too bad, but his feel and command were clearly rusty, and Houston took full advantage: five runs on five hits and a walk over four innings of work in an 8-5 loss in Game 3. Now the fate of the Rangers’ season lies in large part on his right arm, and it remains to be seen just how effective the righty can be at age 39 and coming off of a serious injury. Scherzer gave Texas more or less what they were hoping for when they acquired him from the Mets at the trade deadline, with a 3.20 ERA over eight starts, but none of that will matter if he doesn’t come through in this spot. He’s actually been in this spot before; he faced the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Game 7 of the World Series, giving up two runs on seven hits and four walks over five innings of work while taking a no-decision in a game the Nationals eventually won.

Postseason Javier is real, and he’s on the rampage again. The righty had a miserable time for much of the summer, with a 5.79 ERA in June, a 6.86 mark in July and a 6.17 mark in August. But he started to show signs of turning things around in September — striking out 11 over five one-run innings against the Orioles on September 20, blanking the Diamondbacks over six innings on October 1 — and he’s been spectacular so far in the postseason, with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He dominated the Twins for five scoreless in Game 3 of the ALDS, then allowed two runs on just three hits in 5.2 innings in Game 3 of this series. His fastball looks like the riding menace it did during his breakout 2022 season, and he’s managed to avoid the home-run problem that plagued him during the regular season.

Over/Under pick

The last time these pitchers got together, we saw a total of 13 runs scored. I’m backing the over again in Game 7: The Astros seem very, very comfortable against Scherzer — they’ve tagged him for 12 runs the last two times they’ve faced him — and while Bruce Bochy will likely have a quick hook, the underbelly of the Texas bullpen doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. If the Rangers can contribute to this total at all, we should be in good shape.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

I just don’t have enough faith in Scherzer to actually give the Rangers a solid 4-5 innings — and if he can’t, I really don’t have faith in Texas’ ability to get the ball to the two relievers they actually trust. Houston’s home funk makes this feel a bit dicier than it should, but October Cristian Javier and Yordan Alvarez should be enough to get it done.