RBC Canadian Open Tips & Odds 2023 for the field

The PGA Tour heads to Toronto for the Canadian Open this week with our man Jamie Broadhurst putting forward five each-way picks...

We were back to profitable ways last week at the Memorial Tournament where our 70/1 tip Si Woo Kim finished in solo 4th place, meaning that if you follow the usual 1pt each way stake plan, you would be in profit by 5pts last week. Was a refreshing result considering how poor our luck has been over the weekend as of late.

The eventual winner was 20/1 shot Viktor Hovland who managed to get his first win on US soil. He achieved the win by winning the 1st hole of a sudden death play-off against Denny McCarthy. Hovland has been in my preview 4/5 times this year, the win was coming, it was just a matter of time for the young Norwegian.

Onto this week then and we are at a course that has never been seen before on the PGA Tour before in Oakdale Golf & Country Club, in Toronto, Canada. 

Oakdale becomes the 37th different golf course to host the 3rd oldest PGA Tour event that runs year after year (Oldest 2 are the US Open and the Open Championship) the first Canadian Open was held all the way back in 1904.

Due to COVID-19 and its complications, The Canadian Open took two years off over 2020 and 2021. It returned last year in 2022 where Rory McIlroy clinched his second Canadian Open title, he will look to defend this year again and make it a hattrick of Canadian Opens for sure. It may also be worth noting from a betting aspect that six of the last seven winners of this event have been non-american.

Oakdale Golf & Country Club

• Par 71, 7264 yards approx.
• Stanley Thompson/Robbie Robinson design
• Bentgrass Fairways/Rough and Greens
• 3 x Par 3s - ranging from 172-208 yards
• 12 x Par 4s - ranging from 354-489 yards
• 3 x Par 5s - measuring 496, 553 and 590 yards.
• Fairways are narrow, tree lined and rough grass is majorly long.
• Heavy, deep bunkering around each green.
• Tough greens to read, judge the pace of and contours are suitable but effective 

The Oakdale Golf & Country Club has 27 holes on its grounds (3 nine hole courses). Stanley Thompson designed 2 of them and Robbie Robinson designed 1 of them. This week’s Canadian Open will be played across different holes from all 3 courses. So, it may measure 7264 yards on paper, but holes may differ between rounds, so do not take the yardages too seriously this week!

Just for reference I have made a list below of the last 6 Canadian Open winners and their winning scores, keep in mind that the 2021 and 2020 versions we canceled either due to scheduled difficulties or COVID-19 restrictions;

2022 Winner – Rory McIlroy-19
2019 Winner – Rory McIlroy -22
2018 Winner – Dustin Johnson -23
2017 Winner – Jhonattan Vegas -21
2016 Winner – Jhonattan Vegas -12
2015 Winner – Jason Day -17

The average winning score for the last six winners has been a huge 19 under par. For some reason this year, looking at the course I cannot see it getting quite that far under par this week.

The fairways are much narrower than the regular PGA Tour course we see week in week out. If the players then miss the fairways which they surely will at some stage this week, they will stray into some deep and thick stuff that’s for sure!

On the approach to the green, the players will have to make sure their approach play avoids the really deep sanded bunkers that surround these greens on every hole and also make sure they avoid the ’Black Creek’ that runs through the course and will come into play on eight of the holes this week.

An accurate and gritty player will be the order of play this week for sure! It may be good preparation to have played in one of the tournaments in the last month or so on the PGA Tour as players have faced some really tough tests of late.

• SG: OTT – lean towards accuracy 
• GIR/SG: Approach – Specific approaches from 150 and less yards
• Putting Average on Bentgrass greens/One putt %s to convert scoring opportunities
• Par 4 scoring averages

Keeping it simple this week with a new course on offer. A lot of guessing is being done on who I think will thrive in these conditions. As explained above, I want a guy that hits a high percentage of fairways, sharp with his short irons and that can find Greens in regulation within a good proximity to avoid too many tricky putts through the contours on these greens this week.

Let’s take a look at the field for this week;

The Field

11 of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Rankings will be teeing it up at the Canadian Open. 

Looking at the 8-place market on the Each Way Extra section on bet365, they have priced World Number 3 Rory McIlory as clear favourite at 9/2. Rory is coming here looking for a hat trick of wins of Canadian Opens, but apart from last week he comes here in awful form. He was looking as though he would contend at Jack's place last week but fell away like many did on his last round to finish in a tie for seventh place. The field here is much weaker than at last week’s designated event so I would not be surprised to see him up there again, considering how good his driver looked last week, but I cannot see him winning.

We then have six players that cover 12/1 and 16/1. Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Cam Yong, Corey Conners and Justin Rose. The winner could well indeed come from this range, with some really inform ball strikers flooding this part of the market. Tyrrell Hatton/Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose are all having stellar years and are destined for another good week for sure, on a course that screams English conditions to me, Tyrrell Hatton just squeaks it for me from this group of guys. But they are all way too short in the odds for me to consider tipping them this week.

And finally, many Canadians are in the field this week trying to cop their National title, 80/1 Nick Taylor suits this course down to the ground for me and is the best of the contingent this week!

RBC Canadian Open Tips

Shane Lowry - each-way

Five each-way tips for you again this week! All took on Bet365 with 8 places, all 1pt each way as usual! Good luck all! Let’s have another successful week!

Shane Lowry 20/1

This golf course is very British in its set up. Tree lined and narrow fairways, thick penal rough, tough scrambling conditions and equally tough bunkering around these greens. Dare I say the conditions remind me of Wentworth Golf Club that holds the BMW PGA Championship every September in Surrey, London. One that Shane Lowry clinched the title of in 2022 in dramatic fashion over Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.

Shane does not tee it up very often at the minute, but a 12th place at the PGA Championship at a very tough layout of Oakhill Country Club caught the eye, and the fact that he clearly loves coming to Canada! 

Tommy Fleetwood - each-way

Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
Canadian Open Form – 6
Recent Form – MC-18-5-15-33

Another bet taken for the same kind of reasons as Lowry above. The Englishman is renowned for performing well when competing on British courses and ones that portray a similar style to them. Apart from the missed cut at the Charles Schwab challenge lately, he is enjoying a pretty consistent run of good golf on some really good golf courses. He ranks 1st for Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Scrambling which will indeed come in handy and his approach numbers lately are nothing to bat an eyelid at! He is yet to win on the PGA Tour but surely he can only do so much knocking on the door before it opens!

Matt Kuchar - each-way

Matt Kuchar 40/1
Canadian Open Form – 14-MC-4-MC-34-2-4-7-9-32-MC-4
Recent Form – MC-43-23-19-3

Kuchar is enjoying a really consistent season and has had 4 top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour to date. He is coming off the back of 2 tough results at the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship, but these were played on 2 brutes of a golf course and Matt isn’t the furthest driver of the ball in any stretch of the imagination (averaging 293 yards off the tee this year).

He is a classic seasoned pro and can be seen by his 12 appearances at the Canadian Open. A scoring average of 69.00 is really impressive where he has racked up top 10 finishes in exactly half his appearances across the border. He lies 2nd on Tour for Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Scrambling and will definitely rely on these skills this week, here’s hoping he makes a fist of it!

Aaron Rai 80/1
Canadian Open Form - 13
Recent Form – 12-MC-MC-MC-13

Wolverhampton’s finest, the double gloved Rai. Another golfer that does not do a lot wrong on paper but has had a torturous run of missed cuts of late sandwiched by a 13th finish at the Zurich Classic pairs event and a 12th finish 2 weeks back at the Charles Schwab Challenge, played at Colonial CC which is an ultimate test for any golfer, especially one in Rai that arrived there off the back of three missed cuts in a row. He was 5th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green that week and really impressed with his short irons where he gained on average over 1 stroke per round for his approach play. Pair that this week with his 6th for Driving Accuracy this season to date and his 16th for Greens in Regulation, he could have a week in him if the putter warms up!

Brendan Todd - each-way

Brendan Todd 90/1
Canadian Open Form – 13-MC-MC-19
Recent Form – 57-MC-8-26-50

The ToddFather. A guy that plays well within himself and always crops up with good golf at his style of course. He will not overpower a course by any stretch of imagination but will find fairways more often that not (65% of the time this season), his proximity to the hole stats are really solid (20th this season) and his Scrambling and Putting stats are always stellar year on year. If he can find a few more Greens in Regulation to back his accurate driving game up, I can see him stringing a few birdies together for sure this week!