Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Red Sox (30-30) and Cleveland Guardians (27-32) embark on a 3-game series at Progressive Field Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1

Boston lost to Tampa Bay 4-1 Monday and was beaten by the Rays 3-1 in a wrap-around series at Fenway Park. The BoSox are just 4-10 with a .681 OPS in their last 14 games.

Cleveland was off Monday after going 4-3 on a road trip at the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins last week. The Guardians are 8-6 with a 2.83 ERA over their last 14 games at home.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

LHP James Paxton vs. RHP Shane Bieber

Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) is making his 5th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 through 19 IP.

• Coming off the sharpest start of the year: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 5-4 loss to vs. the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
• Missed April with a hamstring strain
• Owns a 3.61 ERA over 141 career games

Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 75 IP.

• Current Boston batters own a high-contact .819 OPS against him
• K/9 figure is a would-be career low

Red Sox at Guardians odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.

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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Guardians 3

The Red Sox are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings with the Guardians and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

Bieber is running into a lot of bats and is in for some ERA bloat unless he gets things turned around. Paxton sets up the other way: he’s been hurt by a .310 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 16.7% home runs/fly balls (HR/FB) rate. He’s a fly-ball hurler who figures to be aided by a hefty, inward pitcher’s breeze in this one. The bullpens figure to be a more even proposition than what shows on paper (ERAs: Cleveland 3.06, Boston 3.83).

The Guardians are 1-4 across their last 5 games after an off day. Boston has played a much tougher schedule and has a much stronger offense.

Tab this one for a partial-unit play on BOSTON (+106). Early betting — toward the Crimson Hose — has taken a bit of the starch out of this play, but the current return still makes for value.

These 2 clubs have played a ton of 1-run games so far and with a low-scoring run environment, the idea of a Sox-plus-a-run play has some lure. But there is a lot of juice here.

PASS.

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Plenty of expected-vs.-actual results — for offenses, starters, bullpens — swing both ways across this total. The market doesn’t seem to have a good feel for this one and books are all over the map.

AVOID.

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