Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

12 April 2023

Tampa Bay has dominated the opposition to the tune of 11 straight wins and a +63 run differential. Even with an unproven starter taking the mound tonight, there's no reason to go away from the Rays now — read more in our MLB betting picks below.

The Tampa Bay Rays will try to keep their incredible winning streak alive as they host the Boston Red Sox in the third game of a four-game series on Wednesday.

The Rays (11-0) are closing in on the record for the most consecutive wins to start a season, as two previous teams have started the year with 13 victories. The Red Sox are 5-6 on the year and sit in last place in the AL East.

If Tampa Bay wants to keep its winning streak alive, it will have to do it behind a rookie pitcher making his major league debut. We’ll discuss whether Boston can put an end to this undefeated run in our MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Rays on April 12.

Red Sox vs Rays odds

Red Sox vs Rays predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t just winning games to start the year, they are obliterating their competition. Tampa Bay has put up a run differential of +63 through 11 games, while no other team in the majors SITS higher than +28. The Rays lead the league in runs per game (7.55) while also holding opponents to an MLB-best average of 1.82 runs per contest.

Those numbers can’t continue forever, but they’re a clear sign of a team that’s built to win this year and which should continue to rack up wins even after this winning streak inevitably comes to an end.

FanGraphs already gives the Rays a 92% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 10.9% shot at winning the World Series, both tops in the American League.

As Tampa Bay chases down the record, it will be as vulnerable as it has been this season on Wednesday night. With Zach Eflin on the injured list with back tightness, the Rays will start top prospect Taj Bradley in his place.

Bradley was solid in two spring training appearances, giving up just three hits in 3 1/3 innings. Last season, Bradley went 7-4 with a 2.57 ERA will splitting time between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham at age 21, significantly younger than most of his competition.

With a sizzling fastball and an array of improving breaking balls, Bradley is not only the top prospect in the Rays organization but one of the best pitching prospects in the league.

We won’t know if Bradley is up for the challenge of facing major league competition until we see him on the mound. However, everything he has shown so far suggests he will at least have a chance to succeed on Wednesday, especially against a Boston Red Sox team that has never faced him.

As for the BoSox, they’ll send veteran lefty Chris Sale to the mound on Wednesday. The 34-year-old has struggled to start the season, putting up an 11.25 ERA in eight innings over his first two starts. Sale is still striking out batters at a high rate — as he always has — but has given up four homers already this season.

Both teams can score runs, and both pitchers look potentially vulnerable tonight, but in both cases, the Rays have the edge. Tampa Bay has been the most dominant offensive team in the league and is scoring 6.25 runs per game against left-handed starters. Bradley is unproven but looks highly promising, while Sale has been a mess so far this year.

The Rays aren’t just undefeated this year but are also an astounding 10-1 against the run line. They should be able to handle a struggling Red Sox team at home tonight. I’m backing Tampa Bay and laying the 1.5 runs to get more value out of this scorching-hot team.

My best bet: Rays -1.5 (+165 at PointsBet)

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Red Sox vs Rays moneyline analysis

Tampa Bay opened tonight’s game as a -123 favorite on the moneyline. The line has shifted further in the Rays’ favor, and the consensus number is now around Tampa Bay -130. You can find MLB odds of as good as +120 on the Red Sox if you want to bet on the underdog tonight.

I’m not sure that’s advisable. As we all know, the Rays are riding an 11-game winning streak, and have been blowing out teams left and right. While the Red Sox gave Tampa Bay its toughest game on the season on Monday in a 1-0 loss, the Rays bounced back with a 7-2 win on Tuesday – the first time anyone had even scored against Tampa Bay since Friday.

I can’t imagine that Bradley will be that dominant against a strong Red Sox lineup on Wednesday, but it’s difficult to imagine that Sale will have any success against the Rays. Sure, Sale settled down a bit in his second start, but that was against the light-hitting Tigers, who still managed to touch him up for three runs in five innings.

Personally, I like taking the Rays on the run line tonight. There’s no reason that Tampa Bay shouldn’t score yet another blowout win as they march towards tying or breaking the record for the longest winning streak to start the season, but if you’re nervous about giving up 1.5 runs, the moneyline odds also look awfully generous tonight.

Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under analysis

Sportsbooks opened the total for tonight’s game at 8.5 runs. Most books are staying with that number, with the consensus settling at about -105 on the Over and -115 on the Under.

I’ve been harping on this throughout this analysis, but the Rays are the top-scoring team in the majors. They’ve combined that with outstanding run prevention, but it’s hard to know whether they’ll be able to keep up that half of the equation on Wednesday.

Not only is Tampa Bay starting an untested rookie, but they’re also facing a potent Red Sox offense that is averaging 5.55 runs per game in its own right.

Boston is hampered a bit by the loss of Adam Duvall, but most of their other top hitters are left-handed, including Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers. Bradley was hardly terrible against lefties in the minors last year, but they hit him to a .758 OPS, compared to an outstanding .503 vs. right-handed batters.

This adds up to a game where we can expect some runs to be scored. While 8.5 is a reasonably high number, I think the Rays are likely to tee off on Sale, while the Red Sox get a few runs back against Bradley while he stays in the game. I’m leaning towards the Over in this matchup.

Red Sox vs Rays game info

Red Sox vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Sale (1-0, 11.25 ERA): Sale looked better in his second start of the year, but the veteran still hasn’t put together an impressive performance in 2023. After missing most of the 2022 season with injuries, the 34-year-old southpaw still looks like he has the ability to punch out batters. However, a three-inning start against the Orioles saw Sale give up seven runs and three homers. He mostly settled down after a rough first inning to beat the Tigers last Thursday, but he still allowed three runs in just five innings.

Zach Eflin (2-0, 3.27 ERA): Perhaps the top prospect in the Rays organization, Bradley has been succeeding against increasingly difficult competition throughout his minor league career. The 22-year-old has an electric fastball and a strong cutter that has action more similar to a slider, along with solid secondary stuff. While stamina is still a question, Bradley projects as at least a solid MLB starter and could be a potential ace.