Rays-Astros prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, July 29

Two of the best teams in the American League will face off in the second game of a three-game series when rookie Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.30 ERA) takes the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight against the Houston Astros and Hunter Brown (6-7, 4.19). First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m.

The Astros are -130 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rays are +110 underdogs. The total is set for 8.5.

Rays-Astros picks: Saturday, July 29

Injury report

Rays

Day-to-day: Zach Eflin (left knee discomfort)
Out: INF Taylor Walls (left oblique strain), C Francisco Mejia (left knee MCL sprain), RP Jsh Fleming (left elbow inflammation), RP Andrew Kittredge (Tommy John surgery)

Astros

Out: SP Jose Urquidy (right shoulder inflammation), OF Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery)

Starting pitchers

Taj Bradley vs. Hunter Brown

The last time out, Bradley put together a mature start, as he rebounded from a tough first inning to finish with three runs allowed in five innings against the Baltimore Orioles. While Bradley boasts an ERA above five, it’s inflated thanks to back-to-back starts where he allowed five and seven earned runs, respectively. This is his second career start against the Astros, as he allowed three runs in five innings earlier this year.

Brown ended a three-week slump his last time out when he put together a quality start (six innings, two earned runs allowed) against the Athletics. Prior to that, Brown had a 7.13 ERA in his last five starts. Brown ranks in the 76th percentile in strikeout rate, but is in the 16th percentile in exit velocity and the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Over/Under pick

This is a bit of a tough pick due to the youth on the mound. That said, I’m backing the over in large part because of how last night’s game went. While the under hit, these teams combined for seven runs in a game that featured a much better pitching matchup. I think they’ll be able to scratch out two more runs tonight.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Last night, the Rays picked up a win thanks to some hustle and timely hitting from Jose Siri. I like their chances to make it two in a row tonight.