Reds vs. Nationals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Cincinnati Reds (59-52) and Washington Nationals (46-63) square off in the first of a three-game series on Friday at Great American Ball Park, at 6:40 PM ET. The Reds are coming off a series defeat to the Cubs, and the Nationals a series win over the Brewers.

The Reds are favored at home (-184) against the Nationals (+153). The contest has an over/under of 10.5.

The insights in what follows reflect odds as of August 4, 2023 at 7:19 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Reds vs Nationals Betting Lines

Reds Betting Insights

• This season, the Reds have won 19 out of the 28 games, or 67.9%, in which they’ve been favored.
• Cincinnati has played as favorites of -184 or more twice this season and won both games.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 64.8% chance of a victory for the Reds.
• Games involving Cincinnati has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 59 of 111 chances this season.
• The Reds have an ATS record of 68-43-0 in 111 games with a spread this season.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Nationals Betting Insights

• The Nationals have won in 41, or 40.6%, of the 101 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• Washington has a mark of 24-24 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +153 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 39.5% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
• Washington and its opponents have hit the over in 52 of its 108 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
• The Nationals are 58-50-0 against the spread in their 108 games that had a posted line this season.

Nationals Last 10 Games Trend

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Reds Probable Pitcher – Graham Ashcraft

• Ashcraft and his team are 13-7-0 ATS this season when he starts.
• The right-hander allowed five hits in six scoreless innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.
• Ashcraft has six starts in a row of five innings or more.
• He has two appearances with no earned runs allowed in 20 chances this season.
• Ashcraft’s team is 3-1 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
• Ashcraft’s team is 10-10 when he starts this season.
• Games started by Ashcraft have an 11-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Nationals Probable Pitcher – Patrick Corbin

• Corbin (7-11 with a 5.14 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 126 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Nationals, his 23rd of the season.
• The lefty’s most recent time out was on Saturday against the New York Mets, when he threw 5 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up six hits.
• Corbin will look to pitch five or more innings for his 22nd straight start. He’s averaging 5.7 innings per outing.
• He has held his opponents without an earned run in one of his 22 outings this season.
• The Nationals have a 9-11 record in Corbin’s 20 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
• Corbin’s team is 10-12 in his 22 starts.
• Corbin’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 12 of 22 games.

Nationals Relief Pitchers

Reds Hitting Trends

• The Reds have hit two or more homers in 37 games this season, and are 30-7 in those contests.
• Cincinnati has gone 26-8 in its 34 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
• The club has notched eight or more hits 77 times this season, and has a 54-23 record in those games.
• Cincinnati has a 58-12 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
• The Reds are 18-20 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Nationals Hitting Trends

• They’ve hit two or more homers in 24 games this season and are 15-9 in those matchups.
• In 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 13-4.
• In 72 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 37-35.
• Washington has won 32 of its 44 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• They have won 10 of their 20 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Reds vs. Nationals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Reds (-184)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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