Reviewing the Updated 2023 World Series Odds for Every MLB Team
Major League Baseball's 2023 World Series is still nearly six months away, but the best time to bet on a champion just might be today.
In early May of last season, the Houston Astros were at +1000. By the end of the month, they had ascended to +700, and it only got less profitable from there.
And goodness knows you could've turned a nice profit by betting on the Atlanta Braves in May 2021, considering they didn't have their first winning record during that World Series campaign until August.
Those two most recent champions rank among the current favorites to win it all in 2023, but what's more interesting six weeks into this season has been the line movements behind those top squads.
Milwaukee, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Texas have been big climbers in light of their strong starts, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh curiously have not gotten the same treatment, as the betting public has been hesitant to believe that either of those teams is for real. Meanwhile, Cleveland, Seattle, St. Louis and the Chicago White Sox have provided the equal but opposite reaction, dropping considerably from where they opened the season.
The 30 MLB teams have been broken into seven tiers, but are not necessarily presented in ascending order of odds. For instance, we'll address +4000 Cleveland in the "Middling Records, Middling Odds" tier before getting to +9000 San Francisco in the "Early Disappointments Who Still Have Somewhat of a Pulse" tier.
However, the general trajectory of the article is that we'll start out with the teams who have already been effectively written out of the postseason conversation before working our way up to the early favorites.
Both records and World Series odds are current through the start of play Thursday. Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Oakland Athletics (6-25) +100000
Colorado Rockies (11-20) +100000
Washington Nationals (12-18) +80000
Detroit Tigers (12-17) +50000
Cincinnati Reds (13-18) +50000
Kansas City Royals (8-23) +50000
Chicago White Sox (10-21) +20000
The bottom six in this seven-team tier are not surprising to anyone.
Oakland entered the season as the clear "favorite" for the worst record in the American League, while Washington and Colorado were expected to jostle for that title in the National League. All three have delivered on that lack of promise. Cincinnati and Kansas City are clearly still in rebuilding mode. And while Detroit had maybe a sliver of hope of breaking through if Javier Báez had a bounce-back year while Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene had breakout sophomore years, none of those things has happened.
But the White Sox being this bad is legitimately stunning.
In Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Mike Clevinger and Michael Kopech, Chicago should have one of the better starting rotations. Granted, not New York Mets, New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers good but certainly better than average. However, they've been a mess. And aside from Gregory Santos pitching well in low-leverage situations, the bullpen has been a complete disaster.
Maybe they improve to some extent with Tim Anderson back and Liam Hendriks nearing a return. But even at +20000, you probably don't want any part of this line.
Pittsburgh Pirates (20-11) +15000
Arizona Diamondbacks (17-14) +15000
Chicago Cubs (15-15) +12000
Baltimore Orioles (20-10) +6000
Per Sports Betting Dime, Arizona entered the season (odds captured March 26) with consensus World Series odds of +12000, while Baltimore was at +7033. Incredibly, those lines haven't really changed, even though the Diamondbacks spent most of April in first place in the NL West and even though Baltimore has the second-best record in the American League.
The Diamondbacks one I can somewhat appreciate, as the Dodgers and Padres are already recovering from slow starts and will make it tough for Arizona to even make the postseason. The Snakes should probably be ahead of the 13-17 Giants—who presently have a line of +8000—but fine.
But the O's line not moving is baffling. While I'd love to wait to see what happens in these next nine games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh before professing any faith in Baltimore as a contender, you can't possibly tell me that winning 19 games before the end of April is what this season was supposed to do this season. The O's should have at least climbed up into the +3500 range, if not higher.
Those aren't even the egregious ones in this tier, either.
Pittsburgh has the best record in the National League, but is still at +15000? Like Baltimore, we're still in "wait and see" mode with the Pirates, but this line is beyond disrespectful to what has been one of the best teams through the first 20 percent of the season. If you're into betting World Series odds and you haven't already at least sprinkled something on the Pirates, there's somehow still time to do so.
And the Cubs have one of the best run differentials in the majors, but their odds have slipped from +7500 to +12000? It's a zero-sum game and some teams needed to drop in order to balance out the Rays, Brewers, Twins and Rangers all making considerable climbs. Why the Cubs, though, when Cody Bellinger is having a bounce-back year, when Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman are both pitching like All-Stars and when Kyle Hendricks should be making his 2023 debut relatively soon?
Also, of these four teams, Chicago is the one most likely to swing big at the trade deadline to improve its chances of winning it all.
Boston Red Sox (18-14) +8000
Miami Marlins (16-15) +7000
Cleveland Guardians (14-17) +4000
Los Angeles Angels (17-14) +3500
Let's start by noting that Miami having basically the same odds as Baltimore and much better odds than both the Cubs and the Pirates is ludicrous. The Marlins entered play Thursday with the worst run differential (minus-49) in the National League, averaging just 3.4 runs per game. They're 10-0 in one-run games, but there's just no chance that luck lasts all season.
On the AL side of this tier, Boston has put up runs in bunches, but the pitching is really holding the Red Sox back. All six pitchers to log at least three starts have an ERA of 4.99 or worse, with four of the six sitting north of 6.00. And if you want to be taken seriously in the AL East, you can't be pitching like you're the Colorado Rockies.
The Angels are treading water with both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout looking like the top two early candidates for AL MVP. However, it bears mentioning that nine of their 17 wins came against the A's (five), Nationals (two) and Royals (two), and that they've posted a losing record against every time that is currently .500 or better. The next six series against Texas, Houston, Cleveland, Baltimore, Minnesota and Boston could get a bit ugly.
And though the Guardians have floundered a bit out of the gates, at least they're in the right division to try to overcome a slow start. With Triston McKenzie beginning his rehab from a shoulder strain that has kept him from pitching yet this season and with 15 of the next 21 games coming at home, this might be your last chance to grab Cleveland at greater than 30-1 odds.
San Francisco Giants (13-17) +8000
St. Louis Cardinals (10-21) +4000
Seattle Mariners (14-16) +3500
Of the trio, San Francisco's struggles have been the least surprising.
Both Seattle and St. Louis were among the top 10 World Series candidates in the preseason with slightly better than +2000 odds, while the Giants were down in the +4500 range with the Angels and the Rangers. But—as evidenced by having 10 players with at least three home runs each and a pretty solid, mostly veteran starting rotation—the Giants had the potential to make some noise. It simply hasn't happened yet. (And with a combined 1-4 record against Detroit and Kansas City, they only have themselves to blame.)
Seattle and St. Louis both falling shy of the .500 mark thus far has been much more unexpected, but is also the product of some rough luck.
The Mariners are 4-9 in one-run games, including five extra-inning losses already. On Tuesday morning, they were four games below .500, despite a plus-1 run differential. But with Robbie Ray already out for the year and everyone other than Jarred Kelenic hitting .250 or worse, is it likely that they'll recover?
For the Cardinals, the rough luck has been a combination of strength of schedule and lackluster starting pitching.
They entered Thursday 11 games below .500, but only minus-19 in run differential despite playing just three of their first 29 games against teams in that "Not Mathematically Eliminated" tier—taking two out of three in Colorado in that lone easy series. But they're going to need much better from all of the starting pitchers not named Jordan Montgomery if they want to have any shot at climbing out of this hole. Perhaps Adam Wainwright's impending season debut will spark something.
Texas Rangers (18-12) +2800
Minnesota Twins (17-14) +2000
Milwaukee Brewers (18-12) +2000
All three of these teams entered the season in "Don't need to squint that hard to see them at least making the postseason" territory. Milwaukee's consensus World Series odds on March 26 were +3550, Minnesota was at +3750 and Texas was at +4633. At the time, they were all in the 14th-best to 18th-best range.
Now, they're up to Nos. 9, 10 and 11, having all leapfrogged each of the Mariners, Cardinals, Guardians, Phillies and White Sox.
And why not?
Not only have those five teams disappointed in a big way, but Texas and Milwaukee are leading the AL West and AL Central, respectively, while Milwaukee has the fourth-best record in the National League.
All three are thriving largely on the strength of their arms.
Texas is spending more than $100 million on starting pitching this season, so that checks out. (Though, with Jake Odorizzi out for the year and Jacob deGrom recently hitting the IL with the ever-dreaded "forearm tightness," we'll see how long pitching remains a strength in Arlington.)
For the Brewers, Wade Miley is having some kind of fantastic start to his age-36 season, and the primary bullpen assets (especially Devin Williams) have been lights out.
And in Minnesota, Pablo López has been a fantastic acquisition, but that entire starting rotation (aside from currently injured Kenta Maeda) has been masterful.
Though none of these teams would be favored right now against the likes of Atlanta, Houston or Tampa Bay, needing to contend with any of these rotations in a best-of-seven series would be a tall order.
Philadelphia Phillies (15-17) +3000
New York Mets (16-15) +1100
San Diego Padres (17-15) +1000
New York Yankees (17-15) +1000
After duking it out in last year's NLCS, both the Phillies and the Padres are getting healthy and turning a corner.
Both Joe Musgrove and Fernando Tatis Jr. made their 2023 debuts about two weeks ago for San Diego. Bryce Harper returned from Tommy John surgery for Philadelphia on Tuesday, and Ranger Suárez is probably one or two more rehab starts away from making his first appearance of the season. Though their respective records are just OK, it does feel like both teams are at least starting to live up to the potential of their massive payrolls. (And if you're tempted to jump on Philadelphia at 30-1, you are most certainly not alone.)
The New York squads, on the other hand, have been walking hospital beds whose lines have not slipped anywhere near enough to be viewed as buy-low candidates.
At last check, the Mets are paying just under $103 million to players who are currently on the IL. But that's a bargain compared to the Yankees, who spiked to over $150 million out of commission when Aaron Judge joined Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodón, Josh Donaldson, Luis Severino and others on the injured list.
Though they've come nowhere close to meeting preseason expectations, both teams have managed to tread water, playing slightly better than .500 baseball. If the injury bug ever cuts them some slack, they should re-emerge as two of the best teams in the majors.
Toronto Blue Jays (18-13) +1100
Houston Astros (16-15) +750
Los Angeles Dodgers (19-13) +700
Tampa Bay Rays (25-6) +700
Atlanta Braves (21-10) +500
Toronto is quietly having a strong season. Strong because Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have all been dominant at the dish while Kevin Gausman has gone 5-for-6 in the quality starts department, but quiet because Tampa Bay and Baltimore have gotten way more attention for being even more impressive. But the Blue Jays are very much in the early mix for a World Series run.
As far as preseason odds are concerned, Tampa Bay is the only semi-surprise in this quintet, soaring from +2100 up to +700. But when you start out 13-0, still have the best record in baseball by a four-game margin and don't have a single weakness outside of some trouble keeping starting pitchers healthy, you can go from a borderline top-10 candidate to one of the few favorites in a hurry.
Both the Astros and the Dodgers have fallen short of expectations, but it's not like either team has been a significant disappointment. And Los Angeles is certainly heating up with wins in nine of its last 11 games.
Meanwhile, Houston is making a spirited push to join both New York teams in the injured reserve club. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley and Lance McCullers Jr. have all been out since spring training, and starting pitchers José Urquidy and Luis Garcia just landed on the IL this week. It's a good thing the Astros don't face anything close to a top contender in their next 15 games, because they've got several spots in the rotation that they need to figure out for the foreseeable future.
And then there's Atlanta, just kind of casually taking care of business. It did get swept at home by Houston two weeks ago, but it also led heading into the sixth inning of each of those games before an unfortunate sequence of games in which the wheels came off. Aside from those three contests, Atlanta is 15-3 dating back to April 10, separating a bit from the pack as the team to beat...with 80 percent of the regular season still to come.
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