Sabres vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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13 December 2023

Sabres vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Sabres visit the Avalanche in an attempt to take another game from them after a surprise 4-0 shutout earlier this season. With Tage Thompson in the fold, is there value on the visitors or can Colorado defend its home barn?

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Avalanche host the Buffalo Sabres in the second game of TNT’s doubleheader on Wednesday evening.

These two teams squared off at the end of October, with Buffalo pulling off the 4-0 upset. That's not enough to dampen Colorado's NHL odds, though, as the Avs are pegged as significant moneyline favorites between -210 and -250.

Will the Sabres repeat history, or can Colorado get its revenge on home ice? Find out in our free NHL picks for Sabres vs. Avalanche on Wednesday, December 13.

Sabres vs Avalanche odds

Sabres vs Avalanche predictions

I think the Buffalo Sabres are more live in this spot than their +176 odds indicate, which is just a mere 36.23% implied win probability. The Sabres have won two of their past three games, with a win over the mighty Boston Bruins and the loss coming via shootout.

Tage Thompson returning to the lineup has created an immediate impact, but oddsmakers are still allowing us to buy low on Buffalo after it struggled without him. While Thompson’s return has been noteworthy, perhaps most of the credit for the Sabres’ recent turnaround is the play of their goaltenders.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been terrific between the pipes and is slated to get the nod in this matchup. Through 13 appearances in the crease, Luukkonen is 6-5-1 with a .907 SV% and 2.81 GAA.

He was in net when these teams met in October, stopping all 23 shots en route to Buffalo’s 4-0 win. He’s won each of his past two starts against the Colorado Avalanche, posting a commanding .969 SV% and 1.00 GAA in the process.

Meanwhile, Alexandar Georgiev is projected to get the start across the ice. It’s been a tough season for Georgiev, who owns a .894 SV% and 3.00 GAA through 23 starts this season. These woes could continue against the Sabres, a team Georgiev has gone just 3-4 against over his past eight starts with a fade-worthy .875 SV% and 3.31 GAA. Colorado is not playing up to its usual level, going .500 over its past 10 games.

With the way the Avs have been playing compared to Buffalo’s improved play in December, +176 is too long of a price to pass up on the underdog.

My best bet: Sabres moneyline (+176 at FanDuel)

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Sabres vs Avalanche same-game parlay

Sabres moneyline

Tage Thompson anytime goal

There is some strong correlation in this play considering if Thompson scores, then it increases the likelihood of Buffalo’s chances of winning. While he only has seven goals in 20 games, Thompson’s scoring ability is much better than that pace indicates, and he will start to find the back of the net more consistently sooner rather than later.

Perhaps this matchup against the Avs is the perfect spot to get the scoring back on track. Over his past four games against them, Thompson has collected five goals as the elite sniper has seemingly feasted against Colorado.

I already analyzed Georgiev’s woes in net, but the blue line has not played up to its standards either. At 5-on-5, the Avalanche rank 19th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

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Sabres vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Avalanche opened as a -225 favorite and have since been bet down to -215. We already missed the best price on the Sabres, but I would still play them at +176 and would take it down to +165.

That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and remains at that number. I don’t think we will see much movement in this market, given that both teams have a ton of scoring talent while Luukkonen has been seeing the puck very well in net.

Even if Devon Levi gets the start ahead of Luukkonen, which would surprise me, he has been just as good. Over his past three starts, Levi is 2-0-1 with a .942 SV% and 1.62 GAA.