Kings vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

The offenses have routinely struggled when the Los Angeles Kings battle the Colorado Avalanche, and our NHL expert picks do not expect that to change on Thursday night.

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There is a Western Conference tilt on Thursday evening, with the Central Division’s Colorado Avalanche hosting the Pacific Division’s Los Angeles Kings at Ball Arena.

Low-scoring affairs are typically in store when these two clubs square off, with six or fewer total goals scored in eight of the last 10 meetings.

Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Kings vs Avalanche on Thursday, March 9.

Kings vs Avalanche best odds

Kings vs Avalanche picks and predictions

The Colorado Avalanche enter this contest amidst a flurry of low-scoring contests, with six or fewer total goals scored in seven of their last 10 games. Part of the reason for this trend is Colorado’s inefficient offense.

The Avs rank just 21st in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. However, a bigger reason for this trend of lower-scoring games is Colorado’s elite blueline, which ranks fifth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at even strength. 

As is typically the case when Colorado plays, its methodical approach to the game and elite defense leads to lower-scoring contests, which is why the Under is 36-22 in its games this season.

Backing up this elite blueline is goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, who has been tremendous between the pipes this season. Through 45 starts, Georgiev is 27-13-5 with a .919 SV% and a 2.60 GAA.

Not only has he been strong all season, but Georgiev enters this contest in particularly dominant form. Over his last 10 starts, he is 7-1-2 with a .927 SV% and a 2.37 GAA.

Based on his metrics, regression is unlikely for the Avs’ netminder. Among starting goaltenders, Georgiev ranks 11th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Across the ice, goaltender Pheonix Copley is slated to start in the crease for the Los Angeles Kings. Like Georgiev, Copley enters this contest in strong form.

Over his last nine appearances between the pipes, he is 5-1-1 with a .905 SV% and a 2.40 GAA. If he qualified, Copley would rank 14th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at even strength.

Making Copley’s life easier is the fact that the Kings are one of the better two-way teams in the league, in large part because of a forward group with a bunch of great backcheckers. Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault both make life extremely difficult for opposing skaters.

Mix together a strong blueline and a forward group willing to play in all three zones, and it is not shocking that Los Angeles ranks fourth in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. However, things have not gone as well offensively this season, as the Kings rank in the bottom half of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5, which could especially be problematic against a suffocating Avalanche defense.

Considering all of these variables, the Under is the play to make at 6.5.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-125 at BetMGM)

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Kings vs Avalanche moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Avalanche moneyline, but do not want to lay -165. That is a bit too much juice for my liking in what should be close to an even matchup, although the juice makes sense.

They are the defending Stanley Cup champions on home ice, and are currently in the middle of a tight playoff race. Both teams enter this contest in great form, with the Kings winning each of their last four games, and Colorado winning seven of its last 10.

In terms of head-to-head history, the Avs typically dominate this matchup, as they have won nine of the last 10 meetings. Colorado boasts the advantage defensively and in net, while Los Angeles is a bit deeper offensively.

My lean would be Colorado, but not at -165.

Kings vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis

All the trends point to the Under in this contest. There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 13 of the last 15 meetings between these two teams, in each of the Kings’ last three games, and in seven of Colorado’s last 10.

Additionally, the make-up of each team also suggests taking the Under. Both clubs rank in the Top 5 of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5, but in the bottom-half of the league in xGF/60.

Both goaltenders are also trustworthy, with each projected starter ranking in the top half among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. Not only does Georgiev enter this contest in tremendous form, but he boasts a lifetime .908 SV% and a 2.93 GAA against Los Angeles.

I would rather lay more juice at 6.5 than take this Under at six, although that would not be a bad play either.

Kings vs Avalanche betting trend to know

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 13 of the last 15 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs Avalanche.