Saints vs Falcons picks, prediction, player props: NFL odds

You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams with more bad blood than the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. The Caesars Superdome plays host to the latest meeting between these two bitter rivals in Week 18 — this time for all of the marbles. Both teams know what it takes to reach the NFL Playoffs, and while they need some help, everything starts with a win this afternoon.

The final game of each team's regular season is set to kick off at noon CT from New Orleans, Louisiana. CBS will carry the regional broadcast with Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber and Matt Ryan on the call.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is favoring the hosts by a field goal with an over/under of 42.

Let's take a closer look at the odds and highlight our favorite player prop plays for the Falcons at Saints:

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) at New Orleans Saints (8-8)

Kickoff: Noon CT (CBS)

Point spread (from Caesars): Saints -3

Over/under: 42

Moneyline: Saints -160, Falcons +145

PLAYER PROP PICKS

Taylor Heinicke UNDER 195.5 passing yards (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)

New Orleans Saints fans haven't been treated to the best quarterback play this season, but it could always be worse, you could always be an Atlanta Falcons fan. The latter has been subjected to some truly awful displays from signal callers Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke this season. Heinicke has been named the starter heading into Week 18, despite his questionable status.

Heinicke hasn't had much success this season, averaging 178 passing yards per game. He now faces a Top 10 pass defense in the league — tougher than any he's seen this season. There is also too much uncertainty around how the Falcons' offense will run in a do-or-die game for all parties. I don't like Heinicke's odds of reaching the necessary mark, and the -117 odds are fairly favorable.

Tyler Allgeier OVER 30.5 rushing yards (-119 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Arthur Smith's allegiances have been revealed throughout this season. Despite drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round last year, Atlanta has still found a way to get Tyler Allgeier involved. The Falcons are playing for a playoff spot and Smith is coaching for his job, so a conservative approach is likely with Heinicke banged up.

Allgeier has surpassed the 31-yard mark in 12 games this season, including 64 yards on 10 carries last time out against the Saints. New Orleans has a bottom 12 rush defense that gives up an average of over 120 yards per game. The Saints are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season, so if Allgeier gets anywhere near the 11.25 carries per game he's averaged on the year, he should have no issue reaching this mark.

Rashid Shaheed UNDER 36.5 receiving yards (-119 at Caesars Sportsbook)

I've been an advocate for betting Rashid Shaheed's low totals throughout the season. He's burned me — as opposed to defensive backs — more often than not. Thus, it's time to take a stand against Atlanta's stubborn pass defense.

Shaheed has been a relative non-factor in five of his last six games. He's gone under 40 yards in all but one of those games (five receptions for 70 yards against the Rams), which included the loss in Atlanta. The Falcons held Shaheed to two catches on five targets for nine yards. While it'd be surprising to see him lay another egg, it's hard to imagine him quadrupling his production from four games ago, as well.