Saturday plays: Find out how to play the Busanda, Fifth Season
Bettors face some unattractive choices in the $100,000 Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday. The morning line favorite Occult stretches out from eight to nine furlongs and figures to get overbet while making her stakes debut, while the class fillies Gambling Girl and Affirmative Lady appear slow at this point in their development.
Is the Busanda playable? Here are the selections. The post also contains a double for Oaklawn ending in the $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes.
Aqueduct Race 8: Busanda Stakes
Given that Affirmative Lady and Gambling Girl ran 2-3 in the local Demoiselle Stakes (G2) last month, they deserve respect even with the slow final time of 1:53.05.
As for some another negative point about the Demoiselle, those fillies competed over the slop and the Busanda forecast calls for a dry racetrack. Also, Affirmative Lady remains a maiden after three starts even though she did run second in a Grade 2, which is a concern.
On the plus side, Affirmative Lady wants every bit of nine furlongs.
Occult owns useful tactical speed and broke her maiden locally last month by 4 1/4 lengths over a decent group. She also shows a mild speed figure advantage over the more experienced Demoiselle pair with a 90 on TimeformUS, but sometimes recent maiden winners do not carry over their speed figure to the next level or improve immediately.
Going from eight to nine furlongs is not insignificant either. Pedigree-wise, Occult looks questionable for the distance with Into Mischief on top. Occult’s dam Magical Feeling is sired by the route influence Empire Maker, but oddly enough, Magical Feeling spent her entire career sprinting in all 22 races.
It is too hard to separate Affirmative Lady, Gambling Girl and Occult, as they all show ugly flaws from a betting standpoint. Bettors need to decide if this race is worth the trouble.
Use in multi-race wagers: Affirmative Lady, Gambling Girl, Occult
Oaklawn Race 8: Allowance
When Lovemesomeme last competed in a six-furlong race, she ended up third in the Lady Tak Stakes at Churchill Downs behind two good sprinters in Bell’s the One and Joyful Cadence. Bell's the One was a Grade 1 winner and multiple graded stakes winner as well.
After the Lady Tak, Lovemesomeme finished second in two different seven-furlong optional claimers at Churchill Downs. Following the Nov. 8 loss to Charlie’s Penny, Lovemesomeme transferred from Tom Drury Jr. to Brad Cox, and now makes her debut for Cox in this six-furlong optional claimer.
From the rail, Lovemesomeme should head straight to the front under Joe Talamo and face mild pressure at best from Dealing Justice and Headland.
The race lacks any sprinters on the level of Bell’s the One or Joyful Candence, and the six-furlong distance suits Lovemesomeme well.
Lovemesomeme is the single.
Win: 1 (at even money or higher)
Double: 1 / 2,9
Oaklawn Race 9: Fifth Season Stakes
On paper, the race looks loaded with speed with the need-the-lead Dreamer’s Disease present along with other speed in Hello Hot Rod and Ginobili. Dreamer’s Disease will head to the front at all costs, and he figures to burn out Hello Hot Rod and Ginobili in the process if they contest him.
In all likelihood, the pace will go swift enough to give closers a chance.
King Fury does not win often. In recent times, he ran an even fifth in the local Tinsel Stakes, fourth in the paceless Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland and third in the Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill Downs behind two good horses in Hot Rod Charlie and the Kentucky Derby champion Rich Strike.
But with all the pace lined up, King Fury might get a chance to shine at double digit odds. From Post 9, he drew the right post for a clear outside trip. As long as they go fast up front, King Fury can fire his best shot to win.
Another interesting option is Runnin’ Ray, who the TimeformUS Pace Projector puts close to the lead. This gelding can stalk, as shown last time in a Churchill Downs allowance optionalclaiming race on Nov. 13. After an early bump, he started third and 7 1/2 lengths behind, and closed the gap to 3/4 of a length at the wire, although he did lose two positions and ended up fifth.
Expect Dreamer’s Disease, Hello Hot Rod and Ginobili to outfoot Runnin’ Ray to the front. Once they hit the far turn, Runnin’ Ray will strike earlier than King Fury, and maybe he can hold off all the closers late.
Since he is breaking from the rail, Runnin’ Ray will need some luck to avoid traffic. At least he will get to save ground on both turns though.
