Scottish Grand National 2022 preview & tips
What does a pre-Aintree Scottish National mean?
The Coral Scottish National hasn’t been run in its traditional slot for three years now. First there was the initial lockdown due to Covid-19, meaning no Scottish National in 2020, while last year’s contest was moved to the Sunday out of respect for Prince Philip’s funeral.
This time around the timing of Easter has seen the race brought forward fully two weeks and therefore before Aintree, causing an unusual situation. Some trainers on the cusp of getting in at Liverpool have to decide whether they chance their arm and wait to see if they get in the £1million spectacular a week later – but if that’s unlikely should they go for the £85,000 first prize at Ayr?
Two potential Scottish National runners, John McConnell’s Go Another One (number 45 on the list for Aintree) and Henry Daly’s Fortescue (47) have such a dilemma. It’s touch and go for both as to whether they get in at Liverpool, with the latter particularly interesting for the English National seeing as he looks a strong stayer who would be 4lb well-in from the bottom of the weights.
As well as this, the Grand National meeting as a whole has been a launchpad for Scottish National winners over the years. Red Rum might be the only horse to win both races in the same season (in 1974), but it’s only five years since Vicente won at Ayr on the back of running in the Grand National – even if he did fall at the very first fence at Aintree.
It’s not just the Grand National that has been the last stop for Ayr winners at Aintree, however. Martin Pipe’s Take Control was fifth in a 3m1f handicap chase at the National meeting in 2002 before winning the Scottish National, while Joes Edge won a 2m4f novices’ handicap chase at Aintree in 2005 before landing the Ayr showpiece a week later.
What’s the weather and the early pace like?
The ground is Good to Soft and, with a largely dry forecast (just a few light showers are predicted Wednesday and Thursday), it’s likely that description will stand come Saturday afternoon, but whether the race will resemble a usual Scottish National remains to be seen.
With just 31 entries left in at the five-day stage it looks highly unlikely we’ll be getting a maximum field of 30 that used to be pretty much the norm. The last two renewals have had 22 and 23 runners and we could be looking at something similar this weekend – so with the ground riding spring-like a less gruelling style National looks a strong possibility.
The tempo set will be key, then, with prominent racers like Vintage Clouds, Fantastikas, Via Dolorosa, Chirico Vallis and One More Fleurie tasked with setting the gallop. There are a posse of interesting horses in here that aren’t quite proven over such a marathon trip – and you might not need a proven slogger to prevail.
Which Christian Williams-trained horse appeals most?
With that in mind let’s tackle the head of the market where stablemates Kitty’s Light and Win My Wings are battling out favouritism for trainer Christian Williams.
Win My Wings proved herself over four miles in style last time out when winning the Vertem Eider Chase at Newcastle, but she has gone up 8lb for that victory and more will be required now.
Preference of the two is for Kitty’s Light, who looks to be coming right back to himself after a mid-season blip. Rated 149 after a couple of very good seconds at the start of the campaign, he struggled on his next three starts but put in a season’s best when chasing home stablemate Cap Du Nord at Kempton last time in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase.
Dropped to 140 for that run, he’s back up 3lb but still looks well-treated on his best form, while the furthest he’s ever gone – over 3m5f in last season’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown – was a career-best effort at the time and he can count himself an unlucky loser after being hampered by the demoted Enrilo.
He looks a worthy favourite.
Who are the unexposed novices to look out for?
Novices have a good record in the Scottish National (Godsmejudge and Vicente the most recent examples) and one could easily come to the fore again this year.
There are more than a handful to have a go at starting with Pat Fahy’s History Of Fashion who finds himself in the top five in the betting. He’s got better with experience in his first season over fences and has shaped like a real stayer over three miles, while he unseated his jockey at the sixth on his first go at this sort of trip in the Eider.
Ashtown Lad is another lightly-raced novice who has had just the four starts over fences for Dan Skelton. Second to Mint Condition off Saturday’s mark of 140 in his only handicap chase so far, he finished a seven-length third to Ahoy Senor when last seen in the Towton at Wetherby.
Shark Hanlon’s Hewick is another novice and he started life as a chaser when winning at Clonmel last June. A winner of the Durham National over 3m5f at Sedgefield in October, he had a break through the winter but returned in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter on March 19 where he was pulled-up three out.
Fantastikas looks a real plodder for Nigel Twiston-Davies and while he might be suited by this trip he could’ve done with softer ground, while Nestor Park is an experienced second-season novice who finally won his first steeplechase at the 10th attempt at Newbury last month.
The one I like the most, though, is Major Dundee for Alan King, trainer of the aforementioned Godsmejudge.
He’s massively unexposed after just three runs over fences, he’s looked a very solid jumper including around Newbury and stamina looks a strong suit judging by his performances over three miles.
His Newbury run received a boost last week when the horse who finished eight lengths behind him in third, Soldier Of Destiny, won at Haydock easily, which is at least a hint that he could be well treated off 132, even if we are dealing with small-field novice form.
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What are the chances of the trophy staying in Scotland?
Hopes seem to rest with Sandy Thomson’s The Ferry Master who ran a cracking race in this contest last year off a 5lb higher mark. He disputed the lead half a mile from home with stablemate Dingo Dollar, the latter finishing second while The Ferry Master lost a couple of places before the last and eventually came home fourth.
This season he’s been lightly-raced, having three starts before the turn of year before he had wind surgery at the end of January, his one subsequent run a promising prep in a three-runner affair at Newcastle over three miles.
Stablemate Hill Sixteen, second to Nuts Well in the Listed Premier Chase at Kelso, and Iain Jardine’s Cool Mix, fifth in the Scottish National last year, would be the most interesting locally-trained outsiders.
And what about the Irish raiders?
It was 5-4 to the mighty Brits in the Cheltenham handicaps but any Irish raiders have to at least be on the radar and it’s not just History Of Fashion, Hewick and Go Another One who are in with a chance.
One we haven’t mentioned that needs close inspection is Emmet Mullins’ Rightplacerightime, as he’s another lightly-raced steeplechaser who is unexposed at this sort of trip.
He jumped well when forcing the issue at Fairyhouse in November, where he ran out a ready winner in a beginners’ chase, but mistakes have blighted him on his last couple of starts at Leopardstown and Cheltenham.
With that in mind the longer trip could well help his jumping, while it will be interesting to see if the cheekpieces go back on after they were left off in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
Another worth a good look at is History Of Fashion’s stablemate, Stormy Judge, who is a stablemate and full-brother of last year’s third, Mister Fogpatches. He’s not a novice but is the next best thing after just six starts over fences and he warmed up for this with a good fifth in the Leinster National at Naas.
The only thing with him is that he isn’t proven on better ground, but Mister Fogpatches handles it well so if he’s anything like his brother there’s plenty of hope on that score.
So how are you playing the Scottish Nash?
Firm decisions will be made after the final decs but, while acknowledging Kitty’s Light is the best handicapped horse in the race, and a worthy favourite, I’ll probably be taking him on.
It might be difficult to come from off the pace in this if we’ve more of a conventional handicap on our hands, and Kitty’s Light is probably reliant on them coming back to him.
If there are around 20 runners in this I can see the lightly-raced brigade dominating and with that in mind it’s King’s MAJOR DUNDEE that is the top of the shortlist. He was ridden fairly prominently at Fakenham and Bangor and is likely to be in the first wave of runners, while I’m looking forward to seeing him back on better ground, too.
Anything 16/1 and above looks fair about him, while I’ll be considering savers on The Ferry Master, who looks well treated on his run in this race last year, and Stormy Judge, who appeals most from the Irish challenge.
