SMU vs. Boston College Prediction, Preview, and Odds
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The Boston College Eagles, out of the ACC, will take on the SMU Mustangs, champions of the AAC this season at Fenway Park in Boston in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl. The Eagles are considered the road team but will certainly have the home-field advantage in this matchup. The Eagles are 6-6 on the season and have lost three straight games. The Mustangs, on the other hand, have won nine straight games, including an upset of Tulane in the AAC Championship. They are 11-2 entering this matchup. The opening kick is scheduled for 11:00 AM EST.
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Eagles Hoping to Soar
The Boston College Eagles limp into the Fenway Bowl hoping to end a three-game skid that closed their regular season. The Eagles are 6-6 and hoping to avoid a losing record when they take on the red-hot SMU Mustangs on Thursday. The Eagles closed the regular season with a one-sided 45-20 loss to the Miami Hurricanes at home. The Eagles were led by quarterback Thomas Castellanos who ran for 130 yards and a touchdown and went 15-of-30 for 151 yards and a touchdown through the air. He was, however, intercepted twice in the loss.
The Eagles were not hit hard by the transfer portal or players prepping for the draft so they will come into this game virtually intact. Offensively, they are led by quarterback Castellanos. He took over the starting job by the second game of the season and was the team's top rusher with 957 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has become the primary running threat with the season-ending injury to starting running back Pat Garwo III. Through the air, Castellanos went 178-of-312 for 2146 yards with 15 touchdowns. He has thrown 13 interceptions on the season as well. Wide receiver Lewis Bond leads the team with 611 yards receiving and seven touchdowns.
Defensively, the Eagles are led by linebacker Vinny DePalma. He has 87 tackles on the season including 1.5 for loss. The Eagles have struggled to generate a pass rush this season with Donovan Ezeiruaku tied with two other teammates with two sacks. Defensive back Elijah Jones leads the team with five interceptions.
The Eagles come into the Fenway Bowl hopeful of finishing the season on a winning note. They come in with the 76th scoring offense in the country. They are 66th in total offense this season. The Eagles, led by Castellanos, have the 37th-ranked rushing attack. They are just 98th in the country through the air. Defensively, the Eagles have the 69th-ranked total defense in the country. They are a dismal 124th against the run but 32nd against the pass. In terms of turnovers, the Eagles are 90th in giveaways this season which is a big concern. They are 62nd in takeaways thus far.
Key Injuries: Jaylen Blackwell LB (undisclosed), DE Shitta Sillah (undisclosed), TE George Takacs (leg), WR Ryan O'Keefe (neck) and RB Garwo III (leg) are all out.
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Galloping to the Finish
The SMU Mustangs enter the Fenway Bowl as one of the hottest teams in the country with nine straight wins, including an AAC title game win over then #18th-ranked Tulane. They are 11-2 following their 26-14 win over Tulane to finish a perfect 8-0 in conference play this season. Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for a touchdown pass and accounted for 266 yards of total offense in his first career start for SMU. The Mustangs were able to upend a Tulane team that was attempting to earn a spot in a New Year's Bowl game and had a ten-game win streak of its own. SMU had hoped to earn a New Year's Day Bowl bid after the upset over Tulane but it was not to be.
"The bottom line is we're still celebrating (a conference championship) and we're not going to let things that maybe we don't agree with overshadow that," SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said of the bowl announcement.
Like Boston College, the Mustangs enter this game without any significant losses due to the transfer portal or players deciding to skip the final game to prepare for the NFL Draft. They will, however, be without star quarterback Preston Stone once again after he broke his leg in the season finale against Navy. Jennings will get his second start in the Fenway Bowl and hopes to replicate the success he had against Tulane in the AAC title game. SMU spreads the ball around well through the air and on the ground. The leading ground gainer this season is running back Jaylan Knighton. Knighton finished with 720 yards rushing and also had seven touchdowns. Stone will have a number of receivers to choose from as the Mustangs had eight different receivers with at least 300 yards receiving this season. His top target may very well by RJ Maryland, who had a team-leading 518 yards receiving along with seven touchdowns.
SMU's defense is led by a fierce pass rush. They finished second in the country with 47 sacks, led by Eliha Roberts' 10 sacks. Kobe Wilson leads the team with 74 tackles including three for loss. The SMU secondary is led by Isaiah Nwokobia and Jonathan McGill. Nwokobia led the team with four interceptions on the season while McGill had a pick but also a team-leading nine pass breakups.
The Mustangs likely have a case for a New Year's Day bowl after their dominant season. They finished sixth in the nation in points per game, averaging over 40 points per contest. They are 14th in total offense this season as well. The Mustangs are 43rd in rushing and 25th in passing this season. Defensively, they are 14th in points allowed per game this season and 13th in total defense. The Mustangs are 12th against the run and 29th against the pass. The defense is very opportunistic, ranking 15th in giveaways but the offense can be quite generous as well, ranking 76th in takeaways this season.
Key Injuries: DE Braeden Flowers (knee), DE Jadyen Jones (shoulder) are both questionable. QB Stone (leg) is out.
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Best Bets for this Game
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Things look to be swinging SMU's way as the Fenway Bowl approaches. The weather is unseasonably mild in Boston which should play well for the Texas-based Mustangs in December. The Mustangs have also had a month to prepare QB Jennings for this game after he was thrown to the wolves in the upset win over Tulane in the AAC Title game. Jennings has a ton of weapons to utilize in this game and should have plenty of time to do so against a Boston College defense that has had trouble generating pressure on the quarterback. He should also benefit from a ground game that should be able to rip off chunks of yards against an Eagles' defense that ranks just 124th in the country against the run. Boston College will be the de-facto home team given the proximity of Fenway Park to Boston College but I don't expect that to be a huge advantage for a team that went just 3-4 at home this season. The Mustangs have a chip on their shoulder in this game, looking to take out a team from a Power-Five conference and solidify themselves as a Top-25 team with a big win on Thursday.
Take the Mustangs
Prediction: SMU -10.5
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The Mustangs' offense is potent enough to beat the Eagles but they are not the same offense that was run by Stone for the entire season. They scored well below their season average against Tulane in the final game with Jennings under center. The defense will rule the day in this game with its ability to put pressure on the quarterback. I don't expect the Eagles to generate much offense against the Mustangs with just the 76th-ranked scoring offense in the country. Expect to see Castellanos on the run for much of the day and the Mustangs defense to keep the Eagles from putting up very many points.
Take the under.
Prediction: Under 49.5
Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.
