SMU prediction: History is at stake for the Mustangs in AAC championship vs. Tulane
When: 3 p.m. Saturday, Yulman Stadium in New Orleans
Records: SMU (10-2 overall; 8-0 AAC); Tulane (11-1, 8-0)
Last Matchup: SMU lost to Tulane 59-24 on Nov. 17, 2022, in New Orleans.
TV: ABC (WFAA/Ch. 8)
It’s not just the American Athletic Conference championship on the line, in many ways, it’s the perception of SMU by the bigger college football world. The program is on the rise under head coach Rhett Lashlee, but the overall weakness of the AAC has hindered the respect the Mustangs have received from others — the College Football Playoff selection committee, for example.
SMU can alter that perception — lazy or not — with a win over the No. 22-ranked Green Wave on the road. A Mustangs loss certainly won’t diminish the strides the team has already accomplished in Lashlee’s second season, and getting blown out by Tulane wouldn’t be ideal, but a win would seem to have a more substantial positive impact than any potential negative impact from a well-played loss.
But besides all of that ethereal perception conjecture talk, there is real and definitive history at stake for SMU. The Mustangs can win their first conference title since 1984 when they shared the Southwest Conference co-championship with Houston. They can win their first outright conference title since 1982 when they finished 10-0-1. They can win 11 or more games for only the third time in program history. And they can earn a potential spot in a New Year’s Six bowl by winning the conference — if the CFP committee deems them worthy of jumping both No. 22 Tulane and No. 24 Liberty.
So what it’s at stake for SMU? A ton.
Redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings makes his first collegiate start in place of Preston Stone, who broke his left fibula last week against Navy. Jennings doesn’t enter the offense as a fresh-faced newbie. He has played in six games behind Stone this season, and he played in some significant moments as a true freshman a year ago. The former South Oak Cliff star won Dallas ISD’s first state football title in December 2021 in front of a huge crowd at AT&T Stadium. The loss of Stone stung, but Lashlee, offensive coordinator Casey Woods, and quarterbacks coach Jonathan Brewer all appear more than just comfortable with Jennings at the helm. All three genuinely conveyed their confidence in him to lead the offense against Tulane’s defense, which ranks second behind SMU in the AAC in total defense.
Here’s the rub for SMU: The forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain all Saturday morning and a 50% chance of rain at kickoff. The field turf at Yulman Stadium might handle the rain just fine, but will Jennings and his receivers be able to work effectively? Will the Mustangs be forced to rely more on a ground attack? Tulane leads the AAC in rush defense, holding teams to 86 yards a game.
Freshman running back Makhi Hughes leads the AAC and is 12th in the nation with 1,246 yards with seven touchdowns on 232 attempts.
Quarterback Michael Pratt can run, too. He has 376 yards and four scores on 88 attempts. Pratt leads the AAC on pass efficiency (just ahead of SMU’s Preston Stone) and has completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,168 yards and 21 touchdowns. The junior led the Green Wave to the conference championship a year ago. A point of contention will be SMU’s front limiting the holes for Hughes and Pratt on the ground.
SMU is tied for fourth in the country and leads the AAC with 40 sacks. Tulane is tied for most sacks allowed in the country with 20. Pressuring Pratt and stuffing the run will be imperative for the Mustangs.
Even without Stone, SMU should be in capable hands with Jennings running the offense. The Mustangs’ defense, which leads the AAC with 302.1 yards allowed per game, will have to rise to the occasion once again. The defense has been the biggest difference for SMU’s improvement this season.
A year ago, Tulane pummeled SMU 59-24 at Yulman Stadium, building a lead of 49-7 late in the third quarter. Lashlee called it the Mustangs’ worst performance of the season but acknowledged the Green Wave had a lot to do with that.
Before that, however, SMU beat Tulane seven consecutive times, including a 55-26 beatdown in 2021 at Ford Stadium.
This is a better Mustangs team than the one that suited up a year ago against Tulane. If they can overcome the weather, the loss of Stone, and the championship experience of the Green Wave, they’ll show just how much better.
