South Alabama vs. Appalachian State prediction, odds: 2023 Sun Belt Tournament picks, bets by proven model
Pensacola Bay Center hosts a 2023 Sun Belt Conference Tournament matchup between the No. 8 seed South Alabama Jaguars and the No. 9 seed Appalachian State Mountaineers on Thursday. The winner of this second round tilt will take on No. 1 seed Southern Miss on Saturday, and it is the second matchup between the Mountaineers and Jaguars this season. South Alabama won the first contest, with the Jaguars entering the tournament winning eight of the last ten games. South Alabama is 16-15 overall and 9-9 in conference play, with App. State also bringing an identical 16-15 overall mark and 9-9 Sun Belt record.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Jaguars as 5-point favorites for this 12:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 130 in the latest Appalachian State vs. South Alabama odds. Before making any South Alabama vs. Appalachian State picks, be sure to .
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 17 of the season 76-46 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Appalachian State vs. South Alabama and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for South Alabama vs. Appalachian State:
- Appalachian State vs. South Alabama spread: South Alabama -5
- Appalachian State vs. South Alabama over/under: 130 points
- Appalachian State vs. South Alabama money line: South Alabama -205, Appalachian State +170
- APP The Mountaineers are 9-9 against the spread in Sun Belt games
- SA: The Jaguars are 10-8 against the spread in Sun Belt games
- Appalachian State vs. South Alabama: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game| South Alabama Jaguars vs. App. State Mountaineers
Why Appalachian State can cover
Appalachian State projects strongly on the defensive end of the floor in this matchup. The Mountaineers are above-average in defensive efficiency, and Appalachian State leads the Sun Belt in allowing only 14.1 free throw attempts per game. Appalachian State has the conference's second-best block rate (11.8%), with top-four marks in 2-point shooting allowed (47.2%) and 3-point shooting allowed (31.5%).
South Alabama has notable shortcomings on offense as well, including conference-worst metrics in offensive rebound rate (22.2%) and free throw creation rate. The Jaguars are outside the top 300 in the country in assist rate, and South Alabama is shooting only 70.0% at the free throw line this season. Offensively, Appalachian State can also take solace in the Sun Belt's best ball security, committing only 9.4 turnovers per game and 5.5 live-ball turnovers per contest. South Alabama also struggles to create havoc on defense, producing only a 16% turnover creation rate.
Why South Alabama can cover
South Alabama's defense is its calling card, with the No. 2 mark in the Sun Belt in overall efficiency and elite-level metrics in multiple categories. There are other areas of intrigue, though, as the Jaguars are 8-2 in the last 10 games and playing their best basketball of the season. On offense, Isaiah Moore leads the way with top-five marks in the Sun Belt in both scoring and assists. He is averaging 18.5 points and 4.5 assists per game while shooting 53.3% from the field this season, and South Alabama is also fantastic in taking care of the ball.
The Jaguars have a top-15 mark in the country with a 14.9% turnover rate, and South Alabama has the best shooting efficiency in the Sun Belt. That includes 53% shooting on 2-point attempts and 35.2% shooting on 3-point attempts, with South Alabama also facing an Appalachian State defense that is below-average in turnover creation rate, steal rate and defensive rebound rate during Sun Belt play.
How to make South Alabama vs. Appalachian State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 135 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
