Spin Cycle: Predicting where top MLB free agents will sign
As of Tuesday evening, all players currently signed to one of the 30 Major League Baseball clubs have reported to their respective facilities to get Spring Training 2024 underway. Yet, as players are supposed to be ramping up their baseball activity to get ready for the new season, a handful of notable free agents from this offseason’s class remain unsigned.
This is nothing new; we’ve seen it become a trend over recent years to have big name free agents hold out until Spring Training has already begun before putting pen to paper. It seems that MLB front office executives have had enough of players holding out when MLB commissioner Rob Manfred made headlines after suggesting that a free agency deadline by which players must have signed with a team may be implemented in the future, indicating that it may be placed in January. There is no deadline now though, and a few gamechangers have been left on the pipeline as they wait for teams to bid for their services. Here are some of the most notable free agents remaining as well as where I predict they will sign:
Bellinger gambled on himself after multiple down years with the Los Angeles Dodgers when he signed with the Chicago Cubs on a one-year deal last offseason. The decision paid off big-time as the outfielder batted .307 with 26 home runs and 97 runs batted in over 130 games, generating 4.4 wins above replacement. It seems that despite teammates calling for him to return, Bellinger’s stay in Chicago was for that one year and he’ll move on to his third MLB team.
Prediction: Minnesota Twins, a team that can use outfield insurance given the presence of the often-injured Byron Buxton and that lacks outfielders who can hit for both power and average.
After an incredibly hot start at the plate last season, Chapman’s production took a stumble at the midway point but he still proved to be a solid contributor, batting .240 with 17 homers and 54 RBIs. His 4.4 WAR reflects his ability to be a solid presence at the plate as well as a brick wall at third base as he continues to be one of the best fielders at the position. The four-time Gold Glove Award winner is a free agent for the first time in his career.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers, whose current third baseman, Andruw Monasterio, posted an on-base slugging that was 13 points below league average last season.
Probably the most coveted free agent in this year’s class does not have a home for next season yet. Snell was excellent in 2023 en route to his second career Cy Young Award, having posted a 14-9 record and a 2.25 earned run average in 32 starts. He struck out 234 batters in over 80.0 innings of work. He hit the free agency market just in time to cash in on that huge production, though so far no team has taken the bait.
Prediction: New York Yankees, who will continue to add to their roster only to come up just short in the postseason — as they always seem to do.
Like Snell, Montgomery couldn’t be hitting free agency at a better time having come off of a career-best season in 2023. Over 32 starts, the lefty was 10-11 (mainly because the team he started the season with, the St. Louis Cardinals, forgot how to baseball) with a 3.20 ERA and an ERA+ that was 60 points higher than league average. A midseason trade to the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers gave Monty his first career ring.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, where Montgomery could round out a rotation already consisting of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suáarez and Taijuan Walker. He’d look sick in red pinstripes, too.
Martinezz turned in yet another all-star caliber season last year as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ primary designated hitter, batting .271 with 33 home runs and 103 RBIs. It was his fifth season of both 30 or more homers and 100 or more RBIs. Although he’s not expected to be a contributor on the defensive side of the ball, his offensive production as he enters his late-30s remains too explosive for teams to ignore.
Prediction: San Diego Padres, who could use a surefire designated hitter to shore up what is already a star-studded offense.
