Spurs vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

17 January 2024

Spurs vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Jayson Tatum's assist prop has crept up to 5.5 in recent games but it may be hard for him to surpass that number against the Spurs tonight. Find out why in our NBA betting picks for Monday, January 17 below.

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs will travel to TD Garden on Wednesday to take on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics, and we've got a best bet for this matchup using the top NBA odds.

Since I have the floor and we're talking about the Spurs, I'm going to have to bring up what Wemby has been accomplishing of late because I know I'm not going to get any help from the social media team here at Covers, as they continue to spread their Chet Holmgren propaganda.

Wembanyama may be on a minutes restriction as of late, but you'd never be able to tell if you were looking at his game log. In his last 10 games, he's averaging 23.8 points per game, 9.4 rebounds per game, and 3.6 blocks per game in only 24 minutes of action.

While he's an emerging superstar in the NBA, our best bet for this matchup is focused on a player who's already established as one of the top players in the NBA. Find out why I’m eyeing the Jayson Tatum odds in my free NBA picks for Spurs vs. Celtics on Wednesday, January 17th.

Spurs vs Celtics odds

Spurs vs Celtics predictions

When placing bets on the Boston Celtics, injuries and rests usually set the stage for how you have to approach your bets, and that won't be any different on Wednesday when they take on the San Antonio Spurs.

Jaylen Brown missed Monday's game for the Celtics, but he's not on the injury report for Wednesday. Instead, we are seeing Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White all listed as questionable.

I think it's pretty safe to say that some of these players will be sitting out, as the Celtics recalled Jordan Walsh from Maine ahead of Wednesday's game against the Spurs. I think the most likely victim is Porzingis; they have been very careful with his minutes all year. I also think it's likely that one of White or Holiday will sit out, but likely not both.

That being said, I'm looking at the Under for Tatum's assist prop because I think they elevated the number due to the potential absence of several key players, expecting increased usage for Tatum. However, I don't think they considered the fact that missing Porzingis hurts his ability to get those assists at the rim on easy dunks.

Not only will Tatum be missing Porzingis, who can play above the rim on the interior and convert potential assists into easy dunks, but with Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint, there also won't be as many opportunities for the other players filling in.

Specifically, for Tatum's assist prop, he's more of a 4.5 player than a 5.5 player. When the Celtics played the Raptors on Monday and Brown sat out, Tatum's total was pushed up to 5.5, and he went Over with six. The only difference is Brown is playing, and Boston will be without players who'd help Tatum convert those potential assists into actual assists.

You also have to ask yourself what the Spurs can do on defense to make Tatum pass the ball instead of scoring, and will we even see Tatum play in the fourth quarter in a game with blowout potential? When the Spurs played against the Hawks on Monday, it was a layup line at the rim for the Hawks' scorers.

Tatum is projected to have 4.9 assists on Wednesday against the Spurs, which allows us to price the Under 5.5 assists at -170, but it is available at DraftKings at -120. This -120 price point also isn't available everywhere; this is kind of a rogue price that DraftKings is running with that I think you should take advantage of.

My best bet: Jayson Tatum Under 5.5 assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Spurs vs Celtics same-game parlay

Jayson Tatum Under 5.5 assists

Jaylon Brown under 3.5 made threes

Victor Wembanyama Under 2.5 blocks

With Porzingis potentially out and Wembanyama patrolling the paint, Tatum's assist prop will lean more heavily on the 3-point shooting of his teammates. Therefore, it makes sense to pair the Under on Tatum's assist prop with one of the Celtics players going Under their made threes prop.

Currently, the only Celtics player on the board we can use is Brown, as no other players are currently listed. I don't mind using the Under on Brown's prop, but I'd prefer if it were a role player for the Celtics who directly relies on Tatum to create offense for them.

That would allow us to sync up these bets a little better than using Brown, but it also won't hurt Tatum's assist prop if Brown is held in check from distance.

I'm adding Wembanyama because I don't think he'll see many opportunities for blocked shots on Wednesday. Boston leads the NBA in 3-point attempts per game, and there's also the possibility that Wemby plays even fewer minutes than the restriction he's currently on, as the Celtics could run away with this game.

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Spurs vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as a 17.5-point favorite over the Spurs on Wednesday at FanDuel, but we've actually seen that number drop to Celtics -16, which is a response to the injury reports and the potential of multiple players sitting out.

If you're looking to back the Celtics on Wednesday, make sure you shop around for the best number, as multiple sportsbooks are trading the Celtics as a 15.5-point favorite.

The total opened at DraftKings at 235.5 and we've seen it climb by three points towards the Over to 238.5. The total did touch as high as 239 at DraftKings, but it was then bet down to 238.5. This kind of gives you an idea of where we should expect to see this number settle as there was some resistance on this number once it touched 239.