Celtics vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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31 December 2023

Celtics vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Victor Wembanyama's been consistently showing stuff on defense, and even with the Spurs in way over their heads against the Celtics, our NBA picks don't see that changing.

Nothing like a matchup between the best team in the East and the worst team in the West to celebrate New Year’s Eve. While the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs are on completely different trajectories this season, the New Year is all about resolutions to find a better path in life.

It’s been a slog for the Spurs as the franchise tries to find that better path and turn this sinking ship around after winning just 22 games last season, but there’s hope in the form of a 7-foot-4 19-year-old from France. Despite being an abysmal 5-26 so far this season and heavy NBA odds dogs tonight, Victor Wembanyama has given fans a reason to watch, and he’s got his biggest test yet against the C’s at home.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Spurs on Sunday, December 31.

Celtics vs Spurs odds

Celtics vs Spurs predictions

Without a doubt, Victor Wembanyama has shown he’s got the ability to be a superstar and the player who can lift the Spurs back to the playoffs down the road. This season hasn’t gone well in terms of wins, but it’s about the development of the Spurs’ young core, and that starts with Wemby.

The No. 1 pick is still a teenager and has had some less-than-stellar moments, however, he’s been as advertised through his first 27 games. Wemby is averaging 18.8 points, 10.4 rebounds, and three assists per game. His shooting is still coming along, hitting just 28.5% of his threes, but his willingness to take them (4.8 per game) is great news for his long-term outlook as a floor-stretcher. Wemby has sat Top 2 in NBA Rookie of the Year odds since the start of the season and is in a heated race with Chet Holmgren.

He added to his resume in his last outing with a 30-point performance in a win over the Portland Trail Blazers in which he shot 64.3% from the floor, but the Celtics will be a far tougher opponent to stuff the stats against. Boston is allowing just 110.5 points per game, fourth-best in the NBA, and holding teams to only 45.6 points in the paint per game, also fourth-fewest in the NBA.

Boston’s defensive rating of 110.9 ranks fifth in the NBA, and teams are shooting just 45% from the floor, fourth in the NBA, and getting to the free-throw line 19.1 times per game, the fewest in the league.

So, while Wemby’s usage rate of 28.6%, is the 18th-highest of players who have played at least 20 games, Boston is arguably the toughest defense he’s suited up against. That makes his line of 16.5 points at -110 a little scary, and his 28.5 points, assists, and rebounds line just doesn’t have a lot of value at -140.

The place we can find value with Wemby, though, is in what he’s been doing on the defensive end. Boston’s offense is among the best in the league, which is the reason Wemby’s steals and blocks line of 3.5 is +130. The Celtics might be the only team in the league where you can get that type of value on the Spurs young star’s steals and blocks.

His combination of length and quickness has challenged ball handlers on the perimeter and big men at the rim all season. The rookie leads the NBA in blocks with 3.2 per game and is 25th in steals with 1.3. He’s the only player in the league averaging over three blocks and a steal per game and is one of only three players to even be averaging two or more blocks and a steal.

For as fun as Wemby has been on offense, it’s the defensive potential that really popped on a nightly basis. He’s had at least three blocks in 15 of 27 games this season and at least one steal in 21 games. The peak of his defensive dominance came in a six-steal, four-block game against the Denver Nuggets, proving he can bring his best against the best.

This season, he’s had a combined four or more steals and blocks in 16 games — 59% of the time he plays, he gets at least four — and that includes in each of his last eight games. While he has missed three games, including the Spurs’ last game, during that eight-game stretch, in those last eight he’s averaging 4.5 blocks and 1.25 steals per game.

My best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 steals and blocks (+130 at bet365)

Celtics vs Spurs same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 steals and blocks

Jayson Tatum Over 40.5 pts + asts + rebs

Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 threes made

Wemby hasn’t disappointed with his production on the defensive end, but the Spurs as a team are one of the worst in the league. That’s got to have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown licking their lips.

Both Tatum and Brown are poised to light up a Spurs defense that’s allowing 123 points per game, 28th in the league, and 14.5 threes per game, worst in the NBA. On the season, Tatum is averaging 39.8 points, assists, and rebounds, while Brown is averaging 2.2 threes per game.

Both of them should see an uptick in their numbers against this defense. Tatum has finished with at least 41 combined points, assists, and rebounds in 11 of 29 games this season, and Tatum has hit at least three threes in 11 of 29.

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Celtics vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

With Boston’s impressive season and San Antonio’s lackluster one, the C’s opened as 12.5 to 13.5 point favorites at most books and that line hasn’t shifted much, with a few coming up to 14.

This season, Boston is 15-14-2 ATS, but 4-5 when a double-digit favorite. The Spurs are the fourth-worst team in the league ATS at 12-19.

With the Celtics’ high-scoring offense and the Spurs’ defense giving up so many points per night, the total opened high and continues to climb. After opening at 238.5, it’s between 240.5 and 241 at most books.

Boston has been a solid Over bet this season at 18-13, but San Antonio has been even better, thanks to its defense. The Spurs are the second-best Over betting team in the NBA at 21-10.

Celtics vs Spurs betting trend to know

The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Over in 28 of their last 35 games at home (+20.30 Units / 53% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Spurs.

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