Spurs vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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26 November 2023

Spurs vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions, but the injury bug has left this team hanging on for dear life. The San Antonio Spurs aren't any better, but our NBA picks think the books are giving the Nuggets too much credit.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

If the Denver Nuggets ever needed a get-right game, the schedule makers hooked them up Sunday night, as they host the San Antonio Spurs.

The Nuggets limp home after dropping securing just a single win on a five-game road trip. And somehow, they’re still 11.5-point favorites against the Spurs in the NBA odds. That’s because San Antonio has just a single win in November and is currently riding an 11-game losing streak.

It would be a stunner if the visitors could pull off a win against the defending champs, but can they be competitive? Find out in my free NBA picks for the Spurs vs. Nuggets on November 26.

Spurs vs Nuggets odds

Spurs vs Nuggets predictions

Eventually, the loss of Jamal Murray with a hamstring injury was going to catch up to the Denver Nuggets.

He hasn’t played since November 4 against Chicago, when the feel-good Nuggets were ripping off wins in eight of their first nine to start the season. They may have hit their low point of the year Friday when they were crushed 105-86 by the Houston Rockets.

The 86 points was a season low, with Denver averaging just 106.2 points per game on the road trip: sagging to 20th in league scoring. That’s still a whole lot better than what the San Antonio Spurs have been putting up lately as they plummet to the bottom of the West.

As with any team in transition, the Spurs have been a mixed bag of results. In six of the 11 losses, they’ve been within nine points or less, while the other five have been by an average of 27 points.

Denver has feasted on teams with .500 or below records, going 6-0 on the year. However, it hasn't been blowing teams out of the water. In fact, the Nuggets' only double-digit win in those scenarios was against the Lakers, a 12-point win on opening night.

The Nuggets aren’t whole right now, with four of their five starters and first reserve off the bench battling nagging injuries. It’s literally left them a one-man gang right now, so while they get back in the win column, I like San Antonio to cover the lofty spread.

My best bet: Spurs +11.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Spurs vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Spurs +11.5

Nikola Jokic Over 54.5 points+rebounds+assists

Gordon Under 15.5 points

Let’s tack on a couple of bets to make a killer same-game parlay. I’ll start with the all-world play of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Denver may be struggling, but it’s not because of its big man. His November numbers don’t look real — Denver scored just 86 against the Rockets and Jokic put up 38 points, 19 rebounds, and eight assists in a losing effort.

For the month, Jokic has five triple-doubles, missed three more by one assist, and the only game he didn't record at least a double-double was against Detroit when he was ejected in the first half. He’s averaging 28.8 points, 13.9 rebounds and nine assists in 12 games this month, and he’s crossed his PRA total of 54.5 eight times.

I don’t see anyone on the Spurs able to handle Jokic, who should feast on a defense that’s third last in points against and Bottom 8 in points allowed in the paint.

I'll wrap things up with Aaron Gordon, who is coming off his worst game of the season. He went 0-for-12 from the floor, missing all four threes, and ending with two points in 39 minutes.

The brilliant passing of Jokic means he’s going to at least get good looks, but his line is slightly high. He’s scored 16 or more points just twice in November, so while he bounces back, it will stay right within his November average of 12.9 points.

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Spurs vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has never dipped under 11 points, though any books that had the spread at 12 to 12.5 points are all back down to at least 11.5, just like I found at DraftKings. For the year, the Spurs are 6-10-0 against the spread, which is a win better than Denver, who enter Sunday at 5-11-0 ATS.

As for the total, the line has stayed consistently above 228 points, with a high of 229.5. San Antonio has hit the Over in 11 of 16 games, while Denver is the polar opposite, crossing the total just five times in 16 contests.