Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions
The Boston Red Sox (28-25) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (24-29) to Fenway Park Tuesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds at Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; tied 2-2 last season
The Reds have performed well as of late, winning 5 of their last 7 games. Cincinnati swept the Chicago Cubs on the road over the weekend, taking them down in a 3-game series by a combined 25-10 score, which included a 9-0 shutout in Friday’s opener.
The Red Sox are the complete opposite, losing 5 of their last 7 — though they did take 2 of 3 at the Arizona Diamondbacks despite dropping the series finale Sunday 4-2 — and they’re 5-5 in their last 10 overall. Prior to the trip to the desert, Boston was swept in 3 by the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. Boston will be happy to return to Fenway where it is 15-11 this season.
Reds at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Lively (2-2, 2.65 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 5th appearance of 2023. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 17 innings.
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1 start — as Phillies rookie in 3rd career appearance — no-decision, 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K in 4-3 Philly loss at Fenway in June 2017
- Career-bests 2.65 ERA and 9.5 K/9 this season, his 4th in MLB
- Just 1 MLB appearance (for Kansas City Royals) in 2019 before pitching in Korea through 2021 and then Triple-A last year and this season before call-up earlier this month
- Worked at least 5 2/3 innings in each of last 2 starts, going 1-1 with 3.09 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 4 ER) and 16 K’s
Bello (3-2, 4.08 ERA) makes his 8th start. The 2nd-year veteran has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 35 1/3 innings.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in Bello’s 7 starts
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-0 setback at Angels May 23
- Hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 5 games — 2.57 ERA (28 IP, 8 ER) in that span
Reds at Red Sox odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:32 p.m. ET.
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Reds at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Reds 5
PASS.
The Reds (+150) are hot and just swept the Cubs. Regardless, the odds are justified as they are just 10-15 at home.
Marry that with Boston’s 15-11 home record and this should ultimately be a PASS. Boston (-185) isn’t worth the juice here, especially in its current form.
LEAN REDS +1.5 (-120).
Cincinnati is 15-10 ATS on the road this season, according to TeamRankings.com. Meanwhile, Boston is 13-13 ATS at home.
The Reds are also 25-16 ATS as underdogs, while the Red Sox are 8-13 ATS as favorites.
The trends point to Cincinnati, which has covered 5 straight games. CINCINNATI +1.5 (-120) is worth a small wager.
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TAKE OVER 10 (-110).
If there is something both teams have done consistently this season, it is cash Over tickets. According to Covers.com, Cincinnati is 30-23 O/U, including 6-1 O/U in its last 7 games. So, the Reds bats have been hot as of late.
The Red Sox are 32-20-1 O/U, but just 2-2 O/U in last 4. They are also 18-7-1 O/U at home (per TeamRankings), the 2nd-best Over-hitting rate at home in the MLB — behind the Texas Rangers’ 16-6-2 O/U home mark.
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