St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati MLS Odds, Picks and Predictions April 15

Soccer fans across the Midwest are in for a treat when St. Louis City SC and FC Cincinnati face off on Saturday night. Find out where the betting edge for this one lies by checking out our latest MLS betting picks.

The new kids on the block in MLS will play host to one of the biggest turnaround stories in the league when St Louis City SC host FC Cincinnati on Saturday night.

Once the butt of many jokes around the league, FC Cincinnati have made an impressive turnaround under manager Pat Noonan and are one of just two unbeaten sides left in the league. Meanwhile, a fast start to life in the league has given way to a scoring drought for the expansion side, who will hope that a match in front of home support will be the recipe to finding the back of the net.

With both teams hoping to compete for the top spot in their respective conferences, getting a result could go a long way toward achieving that goal. Find out how that plays into our St. Louis City SC vs. FC Cincinnati picks and predictions for April 15.

St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati best odds

St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati picks and predictions

After a record-setting start for an expansion side, St. Louis City is now hoping a return home will end their two-match losing streak. They were competitive for a half last week in Seattle, but the Sounders soundly beat them 3-0 on the back of a trio of goals after the break.

After scoring 15 goals in their first five matches, they’ve suddenly lost their scoring touch. St. Louis' two defeats have seen them fail to score, which isn’t good news considering their opponent on Saturday hasn’t conceded a goal in more than 310 minutes of play.

Not only did Cincinnati secure a 1-0 win at home against that same Seattle side, but they did so with just 10 men for the final 12 minutes of play. They’ve also shown they can get the job done away from home this season. A win at Nashville and draws at Chicago and Orlando have pushed their away unbeaten streak to nine matches, which is the fourth-longest such run in league history.

The one outlier in Cincinnati’s strong defensive start was their 3-3 draw with the Chicago Fire, in which FCC was able to undo a two-goal deficit to steal a point. They also happen to be one of just two opponents so far to even manage more than 1.50 expected goals (xG) against FCC, along with Houston. In fact, four of Cincy’s seven opponents haven’t even reached 0.7 xG in their matches.

Chicago outperformed their xG in that match, something St. Louis was doing quite a bit to open the campaign. They are second in the league in goals above expected but have begun to come back to Earth over their past two matches. Just five shots on goal against Minnesota and Seattle led to a combined 1.58 xG with no goals to show for it.

Chicago leads the league in goals per shot on target, so it’s easy to understand why they were the outlier. St Louis was scoring at will early on, but their inability to generate goal-scoring chances in their last two outings has me believing that teams have figured them out. It’s also important to note that two of their three best performances have come against two of the three worst defenses in MLS.

What teams haven’t figured out is Cincinnati’s defense, and I’m not going to bet on that suddenly changing. St Louis’ current run of form doesn’t indicate they’re in a position to do what others couldn’t. That said, I’m torn between a Cincinnati win and a draw, and the price for the double chance or the Asian spread is far too high.

So instead, I recommend taking Cincinnati to win, with a draw canceling out the wager.

My best bet: FC Cincinnati draw no bet (+128 at FanDuel)

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St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati side analysis

St. Louis have lost two straight after winning five in a row to start the season, and have yet to endure a draw. They love to shoot from range and they pressure more than any team in the league, having already registered nearly 25% more tackle attempts than any other team in the league.

Winger Rasmus Alm and defender Joakim Nilsson will be absent from the starting lineup for St. Louis, with Alm’s absence having a clear impact on the offensive output of the side. Despite no goals in their last two matches, their 15 on the season are second-most in the league.

Cincinnati won’t have midfielder Yuya Kubo, who has been out nearly a month with a knee injury. They’ve looked fine without him, having won three straight by an exact 1-0 scoreline. They’ve yet to lose through seven matches, and a win or draw on Saturday would see them tie for the second-longest unbeaten away run in MLS history.

St. Louis are currently favored on the 3-way line to win at home, although they are still being offered at plus odds. However, I’m on Cincinnati to get the win here. The draw offers great value as well at nearly +250, but St Louis doesn’t have the strongest defense, and Cincinnati breached a Nashville defense — in Nashville, mind you — that has allowed just two goals in seven matches.

If you want more profit than the best bet offers, Cincinnati’s moneyline isn’t a bad choice here.

St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati Over/Under analysis

The total of 2.5 in this match will be determined by who is able to best impose their style of play on the other. You have a St. Louis side that have seen at least three goals scored in six of their seven outings so far, with only the loss to Minnesota being an outlier.

As for the visitors, five of their seven thus far have easily gone Under. Aside from their 2-1 win over Houston and the 3-3 draw with Chicago, those other five matches have seen at most one goal scored — all of which were registered by Cincinnati.

The oddsmakers are expecting three or more goals, with the Under slightly pushed into plus odds at most places. The Under is where I would go personally, as Cincinnati play a tight, compact system and are defending exceptionally well. They’re not a side that prevents shots, but rather one that prevents quality looks. 

Cincinnati will be content to try to find a goal, perhaps two, and see things out. St. Louis are unlikely to get many good opportunities, and their struggles to finish the past two matches could negate those.

The Under is the more likely play in this matchup.

St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati game info

St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati key injuries

St. Louis City SC: Joakim Nilsson F (Out), Rasmus Alm D (Out), Njabulo Blom M (Out).
FC Cincinnati: Yuya Kubo M (Out).

St. Louis City SC vs FC Cincinnati weather

Players and fans in attendance on Saturday will have some rain to contend with all day. Thunderstorms are expected towards the middle of the match, with temperatures dropping from the 70s to 60s.