Stars vs Kings Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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11 July 2023

Stars vs Kings Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

While his teammate steals the headlines, Roope Hintz has quietly been the Stars' biggest contributor of late, and his shot total yields us great value tonight. With a total that could go either way, see why our NHL picks target Hintz as the best bet.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Kings, winners of six of their last eight, host the Dallas Stars tonight, with the visitors coming in as slight -125 favorites and winners of four straight. Tonight’s total sits at 6 and leans to the Over.

Bettors are aware of Jason Robertson’s scoring touch this season, but it has been linemate Roope Hintz that leads the team in goals over the last 15 games with 11 and gets a great matchup vs. an L.A. team that has seen plenty of 6.5 totals of late for a reason.

Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Kings.

Stars vs Kings best odds

Stars vs Kings picks and predictions

The Dallas Stars come into L.A. tonight fully healthy and winners of four straight. Jake Oettinger has found his game again, but Roope Hintz has also been contributing more than people are aware of.

The top-line winger has a team-leading 11 goals since December 1 — five more than Jason Robertson. Hintz is priced around +165 for a goal, which isn’t the best value, but for a guy with as much scoring confidence as he has right now, his Over 2.5 shots on goal at +125 is the real steal here.

Hintz has six goals over his last five games, which includes two multi-goal efforts. In that stretch, he’s also shooting more, with 45 shots over his last 15 games, including 10 games with at least three shots on goal.

The winger sits second on the team in shot attempts on the season, and his 14.96 shot attempts/60 ranks near guys like Connor McDavid (3.5 shot total) and Mitch Marner (2.5 shot total juiced to the Over).

Robertson is still the highest-shooting player on the Stars but his SOG total sits at 3.5 and is taxed to the Over. Hintz has a median of 2.0 SOG per game this season, but with his confidence up after all the scoring and a plus-money price, this is my best bet in a game I could see going either way on the side and total.

My best bet: Roope Hintz Over 2.5 shots on goal (+125 at Unibet)

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Stars vs Kings moneyline analysis

Dallas comes in tonight as a slight -125 road favorite, meaning it would be roughly -150 at a neutral site and -175 at home. That might seem like a pretty big difference with how the books are valuing the Stars, but this is a team that sits atop the Central Division and has the best point percentage and goal differential in the Western Conference.

The Stars come in healthier with no injuries, while the Kings are without two important forwards in Arthur Kaliyev (fourth on the team in points/60) and Trevor Moore — who rank as No.1 and No.2 in shot attempts/60 on the team.

Goaltending is also a huge advantage for the Stars, as Oettinger is back to his elite form and has won eight of his last 10 starts, allowing two or fewer goals in eight of those contests.

The Kings sit second in the Pacific Division, but their minus-six goal differential might indicate some losses are on the way. LA has been relying on third-stringer Phoenix Copley in net and to his credit, the North Pole-born veteran has played well of late, but he projects as more of an AHL goalie (227 AHL games to 40 NHL games).

Special teams are the deciding factor for me here. Dallas has the No. 2 power play (28%) and the No.4 penalty kill (83.7%) while the Kings have struggled extensively on the PK with the league’s fourth-worst rating.

I’m happy to take the Stars here, and if LA starts Jonathan Quick, this line could get shorter for the visitors.

Stars vs Kings Over/Under analysis

If this game was played a month ago, I’d likely be jumping on the Over here, but with how Oettinger and Copley have been playing of late, it’s hard to project a high-scoring game.

Copley took the loss in his last outing, but he had been solid since the beginning of December posting a 2.58 GAA and a .903 SV% that would have looked better had it not been for a six-goal thrashing by Buffalo. The Kings had been getting awful goaltending with Cal Petersen and Quick, but Copley has been a nice surprise for them.

If the Kings do go with Quick, I might lean on the Over, but considering Copley has allowed two or fewer goals in six of nine starts this season, my money is on him to get another go tonight.

Dallas has the fifth-best GAA since December 1 at 2.47 and Oettinger is to thank for that. He has a 2.19 GAA with a .925 SV% and has allowed two or fewer in nine of his last 10. Add in an LA offense that's missing Kaliyev and Moore, who were playing important offensive minutes, and the Kings could be in trouble today.

I like the Under here but might like the Kings team total Under 2.5 at +140 even more.