Stephen Foster Handicap 2018: Odds and analysis

Saturday's Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap offers both a hefty purse and a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic as part of the “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series. A field of nine has been drawn for the mile and an eighth stakes at Churchill Downs.

In recent years, the Foster has been won by top handicap horses such as Gun Runner, Fort Larned, Blame, and Curlin, all of whom were Breeders’ Cup Classic winners. This year, however, the 37th running of the race does not include a single horse with a Grade 1 victory in his past performances, but does contain a number of well-known runners looking to step up.

The Stephen Foster is carded as race 8 with post time scheduled for 9:39 pm ET. Here is the field with morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.

Honorable Duty [ML 10-1 – Distorted Humor – Walsh/Lanerie – 18: 8-4-1 - $841,396] This consistent 6-year-old has three graded stakes wins to his credit, which includes the 2017 New Orleans Handicap (G2). Most recently, he made his 2018 debut a winning one with a gate to wire victory in a high-level allowance at Churchill Downs. He had been away from the races since being eased in the Clark Handicap back in November. Last year, he ran second to the Horse of the Year Gun Runner in the Stephen Foster. Hard-knocking 6-year-old.

Patch [ML 5-1 – Union Rags – Pletcher/L.Saez – 7: 2-2-1 - $417,520] The always popular, one-eyed horse is still trying to record his first stakes win even after running third in last year's Belmont Stakes (G1) and second in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He won his 2018 debut in an allowance where he determinedly closed on the far outside to win off a layoff. Trainer Todd Pletcher said that kind of effort is typical of Patch, as he gives his all in every start. Expect a strong late run from his fan favorite.

Hawaakom [ML 15-1 – Jazil – Hawley/B. Hernandez – 42: 9-8-8 - $1,006,305] This 8-year-old will be making his 43 career start in the Foster. Last out he was second in the Alysheba behind Backyard Heaven. Back in February, Hawaakom posted his best career victory at Oaklawn Park in the Razorback Handicap (G3). The elder statesman in the field still seems to be interested in competing and has a chance to hit the board. Respect for this older competitor.

Uncle Mojo [ML 20-1 – Uncle Mo – Pletcher/J. Velazquez – 7: 2-3-1 - $125,020] Uncle Mojo won his most recent allowance start by more than 12 lengths on that sloppy Preakness Stakes day track. He has never run in a stakes race or at Churchill Downs, yet Pletcher is taking a shot with him in this Grade 1 event. He is another in this field that likes to be on or near the lead in the early going and he should help set things up for his stablemate Patch. An unusual longshot from Pletcher.

Matrooh [ML 20-1 – Distorted Humor – C. Contreras/Sanjur – 23: 8-1-3 - $477,029] This 8-year-old was claimed back in February for just $25,000 and has since won three straight races, including the Hanshin (G3) at Arlington Park. Back in 2015, Matrooh competed regularly in graded stakes and was the winner of the Bold Ruler (G3) at Belmont Park. The nine-furlongs is probably pushing the limits of his distance ability. A recent $25,000 claim just won a Grade 3.

Backyard Heaven[ML 2-1 – Tizway – C. Brown/I. Ortiz – 4: 3-1-0 - $334,240] This lightly raced 4-year-old became a Grade 2 winner in just his fourth career start last time out in the Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. His running style has been to stalk the early pace, and in the Alysheba he took control of the lead by the time six-furlongs were run. Trainer Chad Brown has Backyard Heaven on a three-race winning streak and returns him to the site of his biggest victory. Lightly raced and in fine form now.

Lookin At Lee [ML 12-1 – Lookin At Lucky – Asmussen/Santana – 18: 3-3-3 - $1,126,245] We all remember Lookin At Lee as the deep closer who came from way back to finish second in the 2017 Kentucky Derby behind Always Dreaming. Still, his only career stakes win came in the Ellis Park Juvenile in 2016. I found it interesting that he won his most recent start in an allowance race at Churchill Downs while running right up with the early pace. Will he use that style again in the Foster? Not sure what to expect from this big name.

Irish War Cry [ML 3-1 – Curlin – Motion/J. Ortiz – 12: 5-2-0 - $1,252,060] This New Jersey-bred has been competing exclusively in graded stakes and most recently took to the super sloppy racing in the Pimilico Special (G3) on Preakness weekend. On the 2017 Kentucky Derby trail he won the Holy Bull and the Wood Memorial, both Grade 2 stakes. The son of Curlin still seems to be most comfortable and successful when running on the lead. Not since his 2-year-old season has Graham Motion been able to get the son of Curlin to win two stakes in a row. Remember, Irish War Cry was second in the Belmont Stakes last year. Still looking for first Grade 1 win.

Pavel [ML 8-1 – Creative Cause – O’Neill/Gutierrez – 9: 2-0-1 - $877,400] Here we go again with Pavel. He’s in another Grade 1 after finishing fourth for the fourth race in a row. Pavel has not won a race since the Smarty Jones (G3) in September of 2017. No doubt this is the easiest field that the Doug O’Neill runner has faced since that last victory. I am still not sure that he will get the job done in the Foster, and if he doesn’t, hopefully O’Neill will find a spot where Pavel can regain his confidence.  Can he top the easiest field he has faced in a long time?

Summary: The 4-year-olds in Backyard Heaven, Irish War Cry, Patch, and Pavel seem to have the edge in the Stephen Foster. All of them are seeking to break through at the Grade 1 level as well.

There is plenty of early pace entered, so Backyard Heaven will likely stalk the lead a bit more in here. With only four career starts, there is concern about whether he can string three winning races together without physical issues reappearing. Irish War Cry has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career, throwing in mysteriously poor performances just when you think he has gotten his act together. Then there is Pavel, the horse that had so much hype last year, but has yet to deliver a winning performance since the spotlight began to shine on him.

With Irish War Cry and Backyard Heaven preferring to run on or near the lead, I will give the nod to Patch, who will have a good chance to use the long Churchill Downs stretch to run down the leaders.