Suarez vs De La Rosa Betting Analysis and Prediction

The beautiful sport of MMA is back in full swing, it seems, as we are getting yet another consecutive UFC Fight Night event. One of the interesting fights on the main card is a women’s flyweight bout between the undefeated Tatiana Suarez and Montana De La Rosa. Suarez was one of MMA’s biggest rising contenders before injuries steered her off the path to the title. 

Almost four years later, can Suarez continue her domination? Read further for an in-depth analysis and a Suarez vs De La Rosa betting prediction before this weekend’s UFC event.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa Information

Tatiana Suarez vs Montana De La Rosa

Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. 

Date and Time: February 25, 2023, 7:00 PM ET.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa Recent Fights

Suarez is making her first appearance in the octagon since her decision victory over Nina Nunes in June 2019. 

De La Rosa is coming off a tough decision loss to Maycee Barber in April 2022.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa Betting Analysis

Tatiana Suarez Facts to Know

Suarez was one of the most dominant fighters in women’s MMA in 2019 before suffering a neck injury that started an injury-plagued pandemic for her. The big question mark is surrounding her return after a long layoff. It is not only almost four years out of the octagon, but it is also her first bout at a heavier weight class. 

Assuming that Suarez is still as talented and potentially even better than she was in 2019, she has an impressive 4.82 significant strikes landed per minute to add onto as she makes her return. Along with that output, she also only has absorbed an average of 1.45 strikes per minute.

Her dominance doesn’t only stop in the striking category. Suarez has averaged 6.47 takedowns per 15 minutes inside the UFC octagon while also having a 100% takedown defense rate. She is a special martial artist when she is healthy. 

Montana De La Rosa Facts to Know

De La Rosa, formerly known as Stewart, has been known to not get the job done in her fights against the next biggest name. She is a great martial artist and has solid skills all-around; it just hasn’t been enough against more dynamic athletes like Maycee Barber.

The brown belt in BJJ has scored eight submission victories in her pro-MMA career, along with one KO that came in her last victory over Ariane Lipski in 2021. De La Rosa is going to be in a tough spot in this matchup, especially after a tough loss to Barber last year. The lack of activity has impacted De La Rosa; will it do the same to Suarez?

Updates

No injury updates were provided to the NSAC.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa Betting Preview

If we were going to simply make a Suarez vs De La Rosa betting prediction, that would be too easy in this case. You need to do the extra research on what betting lines bring you the most value to win on. 

Even after an almost 4-year layoff, Suarez is the massive -800 betting favorite over De La Rosa this weekend, according to UFC odds. This is not something you will be used to seeing in the UFC. They usually put only the best against the best in that octagon, but oddsmakers seem to have some very strong opinions on this matchup. 

It is kind of scary to trust those odds, knowing all that can happen with almost four years out of the octagon, but it is always interesting to look into when you see this kind of thing on the UFC schedule. 

The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the undergoing at +120. That right there looks like another trap, but keep an eye on that line as it gets closer to them fighting and us betting on the UFC this weekend. 

Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa Betting Prediction

UFC predictions are usually so difficult to make because of the unpredictable nature of the sport and the amount of talent that are going up against each other every weekend. But these odds on this matchup seem pretty cut and dry on who is going to win. 

Even though the Suarez vs De La Rosa betting prediction seems like a lock, let’s take a look at what betting lines are the most favorable for you this weekend. 

The key lines to watch are the over 2.5 rounds and Suarez winning by decision. Both of these bets are agreeing with the prediction of Suarez winning, but also getting us so much more value in our bets. 

Hammer the Suarez winning by decision line for -140 and the over 2.5 rounds. All signs point to this path of victory for Suarez as she makes her awaited return in the octagon at a new division. The rust will be there, but she will be able to use her skill gap over De La Rosa as enough insurance for any issues she has in there on Saturday night.

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