Suarez vs De La Rosa Odds: A Wrestling Superstar Returns To UFC

Tatiana Suarez (8-8, 5-0 UFC) will return to the Octagon for the first time since 2019 when she takes on Montana De La Rosa (12-7-1, 5-3-1 UFC) at UFC Vegas 70 on February 25.

This upcoming card is headlined by a bout between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann. The co-main event between Andre Muniz and Brendan Allen is good, too, though fans are extra excited for Suarez’s return to UFC action. 

Tatiana Suarez vs Montana De La Rosa Betting Odds

Odds as of February 21

Suarez is a massive -800 favorite in this women’s flyweight fight, leaving De La Rosa as the +550 underdog. The odds calculator tells us Suarez’s -800 status gives her an 88.89 percent implied chance of winning, and a $10 bet on her pays out $12.50. De La Rosa (+550) is awarded a 15.38 percent chance of victory, with a $10 bet on her paying out $65.

Suarez vs De La Rosa Preview: Who Will Win?

Let’s find a way to turn Suarez’s return (and massive chalk status) into some money for sports bettors.

What Suarez Does Well

Suarez has an elite wrestling background. In her younger years, she won multiple medals at the world championships of freestyle wrestling and has used those skills to seamlessly transition into mixed martial arts. The winner of the Ultimate Fighter Season 23, Suarez crushed her early UFC competition with wins over Alexa Grasso and Carla Esparza.

The 32-year-old is relentless with pressure and takedowns – she’s great at constantly pumping her legs and mounting opponents. From there, the submissions open up. I expect Suarez will handle De La Rosa easily, though the ring rust will be a legit factor after so much time away.

What De La Rosa Does Well

De La Rosa will have a size and reach advantage when she enters the cage vs Suarez, but I have my doubts about whether that will help her. She’s a woefully inaccurate striker (37 percent on significant strikes) and finds much of her success on the floor. Unfortunately, that’s where Suarez thrives.

The 28-year-old is a sacrificial lamb in this situation. She has her most success on the top – though she can find success on the bottom – but that’s Suarez’s element. Suarez has yet to be taken down in her UFC career, and I doubt De La Rosa is the one to do it. On that notion alone, it will be nearly impossible for De La Rosa to win.

Suarez vs De La Rosa Pick

I like Suarez to win this fight, but we’ll need to fish pretty hard for value.

The public seems to think this fight will go the distance (-135), which is wise in women’s flyweight fights, especially bouts between wrestlers, but I’m betting against the grain. The value is there for us to take this bout to finish inside the distance at +105. Under those parameters, my official pick is Suarez inside the distance (odds TBD).