Super Bowl 57 Chiefs vs Eagles odds, best bets & same-game parlay

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Super Bowl 57 kicks off on Sunday, February 12, 2023, at 6:30 pm EST at State Farm Stadium in Arizona.

The game pits two number-one seeds together for the first time since the 2017/18 season when the Eagles defeated the Patriots. It’s just the 13th time both number-one seeds have met in 48 Super Bowls since the league adopted the seeding system in 1977.

The Eagles have been installed at 1.5-point favorites by oddsmakers with the total on the game set at 51.

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Super Bowl 57 preview

As mentioned, the Eagles make the return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2017/18 season. They finished 14-3 during the regular season and two of those three losses came near the end of the season with quarterback Jalen Hurts injured.

In the playoffs, the Eagles defeated the Giants 38-7 in the Divisional Round and then the 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Title Game. Those results look incredibly impressive on paper. But, you have to take into consideration that the Giants were a weak offensive team that ranked 18th in both yards per game and points per game this season.

Then you look at the 49ers game and remember that they entered the game with a third-string rookie quarterback in Brock Purdy. Purdy then got knocked out of the game and attempted to return but clearly couldn’t throw the ball with an injured arm. Fourth-string quarterback Josh Johnson and running Christian McCaffrey attempted passes, leaving the 49ers with essentially no one who could throw the ball.

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Kansas City was also 14-3 in the AFC and ended the regular season with five straight wins. They also won 10 of their final 11 regular season games. The Chiefs topped the Jaguars 27-20 in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That one loss mentioned earlier came against the Cincinnati Bengals. But in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs got their revenge winning 23-20 against Cincy, despite quarterback Patrick Mahomes visibly limping around with an injured ankle he sustained against the Jaguars.

Mahomes is one of many Chiefs’ players heading into the Super Bowl with injury concerns. Tight end Travis Kelce was dealing with an injured back two weeks ago. Wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle) also had injury designations earlier in the week. However, all have been full participants in practice this week. The Chiefs sent WR Mecole Hardman to the IR, while activating RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire off of the IR as well.

Kansas City last won the Super Bowl in the 2019/20 season defeating San Francisco 31-20. They returned to the final the following season, this time losing to Tampa Bay 31-9, thus making this the third time in four years that the Chiefs and Mahomes will be playing for the Super Bowl.

Chiefs vs Eagles prediction

As the odds show, this one is nearly a coin flip (you can bet on that by the way). But what isn’t a coin flip is the odds of a line movement being an indication of which team may come out on top. There have been 18 Super Bowls where the line has moved by 1.5 points or more since the opener. While most books opened with the Eagles as short favorites, some books did briefly open Chiefs -1.5, before quickly moving and settling at Eagles -1.5.

If you’d bet on the team that the line movement favored, you’d have gone 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS. That’s a pretty strong trend in favor of Philadelphia.

And here are a couple more that tip the scales in the Eagles’ favor. The Chiefs are one of only four teams to make the Super Bowl despite owning a sub-40-percent ATS winning percentage (6-11 in the regular season). The other three? Well, they all lost. Additionally, Super Bowl favorites are 37-19 SU all-time in the big game.

Of course, this alone doesn’t mean that you should blindly bet on the Eagles. These are after all just trends and these are new teams and a new game.

But you can also factor in that the Eagles should be able to control the line of scrimmage behind a rushing attack that runs the most in the league. Pro Football Focus ranks the Eagles’ offensive line as first in pass-blocking and third in run-blocking. Defensively the Eagles were first in sack rate and second in pressure rate. The big edge sees KC’s defense ranked 17th in DVOA, going up against Philly’s offense ranked third in DVOA.

Add all this up and it tips the scales in favor of Philly for me for my Super Bowl picks.

Super Bowl 57 Pick: Eagles moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

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Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 57 props

Here we have a couple of game props to target for Sunday’s big game.

Over 2.5 players to have a passing attempt

It’s the Super Bowl. Everything is on the line and there’s no need to hide any plays from your opponent. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if one of these coaches had something special planned that saw a player not named Mahomes or Hurts attempting a pass.

But furthermore, this prop play makes a lot of sense when you consider that Mahomes (ankle) and Hurts (shoulder) are both nursing injuries. They may not get knocked out of the game, but if either aggravates their injury even a little and need to take a play or series off, we’re looking golden in cashing this Super Bowl game prop.

Pick: Over 2.5 players to make a passing attempt (+150 at DraftKings)

Eagles to dominate time of possession

Both of these teams were used to controlling the flow of the game this season and ranked inside the top 11. But it’s Philly who edges out the advantage, averaging 31:11 time of possession, compared to Kansas City with 30:08. Every logical assumption says that the Eagles will be taking to the ground early and often to try to keep Mahomes off the field. If they’re even moderately successful in doing so, the Eagles should come out on top in the time of possession battle.

Pick: Eagles to win time of possession (-140 at DraftKings)

Super Bowl 57 same-game parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) allow you to group together several different props from within the same game to create a bigger payout. You can also take alternate lines and spreads to include within your SGP. Let’s take a stab at creating one at DraftKings for the Super Bowl.

The total for the Super Bowl is set at 51.5. Whether that total goes over or under, it stands to reason that oddsmakers are expecting some points to be scored. Both the Chiefs and Eagles ranked top three in points per game during the regular season and it should be safe to say they can both score over 1.5 touchdowns to kick off our SGP.

Next up let’s look to Miles Sanders to rack up some rushing yards. He had 42 yards last week but was rested as Philly got out to a huge lead. The week prior he had 90, and before that 33, 61 and 65. His total on Sunday is set at 61.5, but in this SGP we can take an alternative line of just 49.5 we feel he should safely go over.

And finally, let’s look to the Chiefs’ Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go over an alternative receiving yards total of 19.5. His original total was 35.5. MVS had 116 yards last week and would’ve gone over 19.5 yards in seven of his last nine games.

That combination of game and player props in this Chiefs vs Eagles SGP will pay out at +125 odds.

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