Super Bowl 58 prediction: Chiefs vs. 49ers odds, pick

The Super Bowl 58 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs is set to be one for the ages with the No. 1-seeded 49ers representing the NFC and going up against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs representing the AFC.

There’s lots of talent on both sides as is the case in most Super Bowls, and the stats show that these teams are two of the best in the NFL, as they both ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense this season with elite quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.

The Chiefs are looking to win their Super Bowl title under Mahomes, whereas the 49ers are looking for redemption after falling short against them four years ago, and the former seventh-round pick Purdy will look to be the difference-maker this time around.

This is a tough game to predict from a betting standpoint, but I’ve broken down each team and picked the side that I feel is the best bet for Super Bowl Sunday.

Reasons to bet the 49ers

The 49ers have been strong all season, especially on offense with Purdy and Christian McCaffrey leading the way. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is among the best play callers in the NFL and should have plenty of creative calls dialed up to help set up Purdy for success with an elite cast of weapons led by McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. They've gotten healthy at the right time, as they'll need all hands on deck with the Chiefs defense being one of the stingiest against the pass.

As for the 49ers defense, they’ve struggled against the run this postseason despite that being their strength throughout the regular season, but they stepped up in the second half when called upon, especially in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers pass defense has been somewhat of a liability, but they still have elite pass rushing capability that could get to Mahomes.

Reasons to bet the Chiefs

The Chiefs have been on fire this postseason, as Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have seemed to rediscover their dominance after somewhat underwhelming regular seasons. Mahomes has set the bar so high to where most quarterbacks would be okay with what he considers a bad performance, but he’s back to being at the top of his game and has gotten more comfortable with other weapons such as rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to where the 34-year-old Kelce isn’t asked to do too much.

The Chiefs defense was the strength of their team throughout the regular season, and it’s carried over into the postseason as evidenced by their dominant showing in the AFC Championship Game against likely NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs run defense had been their weak link, but they were stout against the Ravens and still saw their elite secondary perform well to where even the elite 49ers offense might have trouble against them.

The Best Bet

While both teams have plenty going for them, I feel like picking a side here isn’t as hard as people are making it out be. Most NFL games are won and lost in the trenches, and I feel like the 49ers have the superior running game and the superior pass rush to where Mahomes and the Chiefs will have trouble overcoming that.

That’s why I’m backing the 49ers in this one, as Chiefs All Pro left guard Joe Thuney being injured will likely cause Mahomes to get in trouble more than usual, and I don’t see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down the 49ers elite cast on offense as far as finding a way to move the ball successfully. It should be a close contest, but I see the 49ers winning by at least a field goal, so I’ll lay the two points with them against the spread as my best bet.

Best bet: 49ers (-2) over Chiefs

Betting line: Chiefs (+2, +100) vs. 49ers (-120), 47.5 O/U

Final score pick: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, Feb. 11