Super Bowl LVIII: MVP Odds, Favorites & Best Bets
The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will take center stage in Super Bowl LVIII, just like they did four years ago in Super Bowl LIV when the Chiefs won 31-20.
Patrick Mahomes and company were underdogs each of the last two weeks. Most counted them out because of their unimpressive offense and uncharacteristic struggles against contenders.
They responded by defeating their first three playoff opponents to advance to their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years.
The 49ers have been odds-on favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for months and are just one win away from fulfilling the oddsmakers’ prognostication.
Brock Purdy struggled in the first halves of the Divisional Round and NFC Championship Game but helped lead late comebacks in both, unifying the Niners and giving them a sense of belief ahead of their biggest game of the year.
As both teams prepare to enter battle, several players are positioned to go above and beyond to win the Super Bowl MVP en route to capturing a world championship.
These are the players the oddsmakers believe are the best bets to win the Super Bowl LVIII MVP. Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Super Bowl LVIII MVP Odds
Super Bowl LVIII MVP Favorites
Patrick Mahomes (+120)
Why can he win? Mahomes has won the Super Bowl MVP in both of his victories with the most recent win coming last February.
He completed 76.9% of his passes en route to 241 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship against the Ravens, who led the league in defense.
Mahomes is also doing more with less offensive talent than he’s had at any point in his career.
Why can’t he win? Mahomes’ counting numbers are not as strong as in years past, which leaves the door open for one of his teammates. He’s averaging 239.3 passing yards this postseason with four TDs in three playoff games, well below his career standard.
Brock Purdy (+225)
Why can he win? Twelve of the last 17 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, and Purdy just led the league in yards per attempt and QBR.
He also helped lead second-half comebacks in both playoff games this season and has the benefit of the underdog story boosting his popularity and narrative.
Why can’t he win? Purdy played poorly in the first half of the NFC Championship Game and Divisional Round and can’t afford to fall behind again.
He has just five passing TDs in five career playoff games and is about to face a Chiefs defense that just shut down Lamar Jackson and held opponents to the second-fewest yards and points during the regular season.
Christian McCaffrey (+475)
Why can he win? McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards and total touchdowns and is up to 25 total rushing and receiving scores.
He scored two touchdowns against both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers and is at the center of San Francisco’s offense at all times.
Why can’t he win? The Chiefs have an outstanding defense but were roughly average against the run.
That said, they were more physical than the Ravens last week and could force the Niners to run less than they’d prefer, similar to how Baltimore abandoned its running game early on.
No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since 1998, so McCaffrey would need to overcome historical precedent.
Travis Kelce (+1200)
Why can he win? Kelce scored three touchdowns in his last two games and just caught his second-most passes of the season (11 for 116 yards).
He’s averaging over 86 receiving yards and has scored 19 times in 21 postseason games, including once in last year’s Super Bowl and in Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers.
Why can’t he win? Kelce is the focal point of Kansas City’s offense and will be a priority matchup for San Francisco, who allowed the third-fewest points per game in the regular season.
The Chiefs also seem content running the ball near the goal line more than in years past, which could lead to fewer opportunities for the 34-year-old.
Deebo Samuel (+2000)
Why can he win? Samuel caught eight passes for 89 yards last week and looked like the Niners’ most dangerous receiver.
He had 92 yards on eight touches in Super Bowl LIV and will likely receive at least a couple of carries mixed into his usual work outside the numbers.
Why can’t he win? Samuel isn’t a prolific downfield receiver like Brandon Aiyuk and can easily fall behind George Kittle and McCaffrey in the passing game.
He’s been held out of the end zone in his last three games overall and in his last four playoff matchups. He also has an injured shoulder that could force him to leave prematurely.
Super Bowl LVIII Dark Horse Bets
George Kittle (+6000)
Why can he win? Kittle was great in two of his last four games and can be one of the most explosive players on the field when given the opportunity. He caught seven touchdowns in the regular and postseason, one behind Aiyuk’s team-high.
Why can’t he win? Kansas City allowed the third-fewest average receiving yards to opposing tight ends (42.6) and just held Baltimore’s TE tandem to four catches and 31 yards.
Kittle has lots of upside but is also volatile and was held to fewer than 30 receiving yards twice in the last three games, including in the NFC Championship Game against the Lions.
George Karlaftis (+10000)
Why can he win? The 22-year-old edge-rusher tied for the Chiefs’ team lead with 10.5 regular-season sacks and leads them with 2.5 postseason sacks.
He forced a strip-sack against Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship Game and is facing an offensive line that Pro Football Focus graded as the 21st-best in the league.
Why can’t he win? Defensive players only won two of the last 22 Super Bowl MVPs, with Von Miller being the last to do so in Super Bowl 50.
Karlaftis also shares the defensive line with another dominant player in Chris Jones and will find it hard to outperform him and his stellar offensive teammates in the biggest game of the year.
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
