Super Bowl 58 preview, odds, props and best bets
For the 58th time, two teams will meet to compete for the title of champion of professional football in the Super Bowl. This time, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs square off in the biggest, most anticipated sporting event in the United States.
Sports betting experts price the Niners as favorites. Here are the lines from the top Michigan sportsbooks:
The Chiefs are appearing in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, led by dynamo quarterback Patrick Mahomes II. He of the no-look, sidearm passes. He of the slip-away, toss-on-the-run, make-the-defense-look-silly plays.
The 49ers are favored to win Super Bowl 58, though we can’t be sure why (more on that below). The Niners are built on defense and the running game. Twice this postseason they’ve survived to defeat their competition despite sluggish efforts.
The Chiefs are the modern NFL dynasty, while the 49ers were the dynasty of the 1980s. These two teams have rabid fans, which means betting will be heavy on this game, as it typically is. For the first time, the Super Bowl will be contested in Las Vegas, the symbolic home of gambling and action. On Sunday, each team hopes they won’t have to gamble, and the action will favor them on the gridiron. Oddsmakers give SF a slight edge, but as we’ll see, there are reasons to shrug that off and use it to your advantage with your betting on the NFL.
- The average final score for the Super Bowl is 30-16.
- The last three Super Bowl underdogs have won against the spread, with two underdogs (Chiefs in SB57 and Buccaneers in SB55) winning outright.
- The UNDER has hit in 28 of the 57 previous Super Bowls. The UNDER has hit in four of the last five.
- The NFC is 27-26 against the AFC in Super Bowl competition. The first four games were played between the champions of the NFL and the American Football League.
- In 10 of the first 14 Super Bowls, the spread was at least 5 points. But in the last 14 Super Bowls, the spread has been 3 points or less 10 times.
- The Niners are appearing in their eighth Super Bowl, the Chiefs are playing in their sixth.
- Mahomes can become the eighth quarterback to win consecutive Super Bowls. The others are Bart Starr, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, John Elway and Tom Brady.
Note: past performance does not predict future results. Make your Super Bowl bets responsibly and with all the information you can gather. Check out our guide on how to bet on the Super Bowl to set you up for Sunday’s Big Game.
This may be the best bet on the Super Bowl spread in a decade. Mahomes is a beast, the Chiefs are averaging 23.3 PPG and 363 YPG in the playoffs. This is not the offense that sputtered at times in the regular season.
Last season in the playoffs, Pacheco had 37 carries in three games. This postseason, the Chiefs have handed the ball to their quick running back 63 times in three games. The workload (and trust) has increased in regards to Pacheco. We expect him to scamper for at least one long run, which means 90+ yards is likely. Check the alternate rushing yards props for this wager
Last play of the game to be a QB kneel: No (+158, FanDuel)
Theoretically, you seem to have a 50/50 chance here, though slightly more games saw a kneel as the final play this regular season (54%). We expect the Niners will be desperately trying to get into the end zone on the last play (or performing an onside kick).
When you have the best player in the sport, your chances of winning are good. Mahomes has a fire in his belly that makes him difficult to handle on this stage. Brock Purdy is a slightly better-than-average quarterback with a penchant for making silly decisions. When it comes down to crunch time, in the fourth quarter of what we think will be a close game, Mahomes will make the plays, and get his second straight title, and third overall.
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