2024 Super Bowl Predictions: Moneyline, Totals and Props Free Picks!
The biggest sporting event of the year is upon us, and you’ve found the right place for all your Super Bowl betting needs. All eyes will be on Las Vegas when Sunday evening rolls around, and the sheer number of betting props available can be difficult to navigate without expert help. There are the standard football props, such as the moneyline, total, and player props, and there’s novelty props such as the National Anthem length and post-game Gatorade color. After countless hours of combing over the options, there are a few bets that stand out as potentially profitable.
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The Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -130 vs Kansas City Chiefs: +110
The 49ers and Chiefs are coming in very close on the betting odds. And while the 2-point spread is an option, with tight odds like this, the moneyline is the better bet.
The Chiefs are making their 4th Super Bowl appearance in the last 5 seasons, owning a 2-1 record in their 3 previous attempts. Mahomes may not have been able to put together the best season of his career, but he’s still been a consistent, top 5 quarterback, even if he hasn’t quite lived up to his lofty expectations. While Mahomes will still get all the credit, it has been the Chiefs defensive unit that has been the difference-maker. The secondary’s ability to smother the opposition’s receivers has resulted in frustration from the opposing signal caller, as even when they have time in the pocket, they just can’t get open. Kansas City has the flexibility to consistently leave safeties in single coverage, and it has allowed them to fill up the tackle box to take away the run, and easy slants across the middle of the field. To get to the Super Bowl, both sides of the ball must be competent, and the Chiefs are possibly the most well rounded they’ve been in the Patrick Mahomes era.
The 49ers have been the Super Bowl favorites all season long, and they finally get the chance to wash the bitter taste of their 2020 Super Bowl meeting with the Chiefs out of their mouths. While Kansas City has a superstar with Mahomes, the 49ers have former Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. Purdy was drafted last in 2022. However, through fortunate circumstances and solid play when it mattered most, he has the starting job with the most stacked offense in the league. On the ground, Christian McCaffrey is an absolute animal, running away with the league’s rushing title, and turning goal line touchdown attempts into a formality. A solid run game allows for the 49ers receivers to have an easier time getting open, with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk not needing another invitation to get open for a deep shot. Not only have the 49ers scored the 3rd most points in the league, but they also gave up the 3rd fewest. Their defensive unit, led by a pair of Pro Bowl linebackers, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, patrolling the middle of the field has been dominant. They refuse to give up easy yards up the gut, and nothing will be simple for Mahomes on Sunday. Both of these teams are very well rounded, and we have quite the battle on tap for the last football game of the season.
For my best bet, I will happily scoop up the plus money price on the reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. This is truly the best defense Mahomes has played with throughout his career, and he has proven he can deliver when the lights shine brightest before. I’m not eager to fade the 49ers, but they have shown they are beatable in recent weeks. They lost to the Rams in the season finale before needing a late touchdown to eke past the 7th seed Packers in the divisional round. They dug themselves a 24-7 hole against the Detroit Lions and got handed a Super Bowl appearance thanks to questionable play calls from the opposition. Based on the regular season, the 49ers should absolutely be the favorites. However, based on what we’ve seen over the last month, this team is extremely beatable. The blanketing coverage the Chiefs corners will have on Aiyuk and Samuel will force the 49ers into the run game, but there will not be much joy found there. Patrick Mahomes will lead an opening touchdown drive to take a 7-0 lead and extend the lead to double digits before halftime. The Chiefs will add to their dynasty with a third Super Bowl. And while a furious comeback from the 49ers will keep the scoreboard looking respectable, it will be too little, too late for San Francisco.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +110
Total: Over/Under 47.5 Points
The 47.5-point total is the lowest since 2016, with all 3 previous Mahomes Super Bowls closing at 50+ points. Both of these franchises leaned on solid defensive units in the regular season, and the Chiefs have allowed just 13.6 PPG in their three playoff games this year. While it isn’t the most fun bet to cheer for, at this price, the Under is absolutely the play. Expecting either defensive unit to give up 27+ points feels like a stretch, as I expect both coaches to keep their cards close to the chest in the early stages and rely on solid defenses to generate turnovers. The Chiefs went over this number in only 5/20 games this season, while the 49ers did so in 7/19 games. We all want to see an exhilarating Super Bowl like the 38-35 shootout we got last year, but it is simply not the bet to make. The Chiefs secondary is more than capable of taking away the balls over the top, which will force the 49ers to slowly move the ball down the field, chewing up clock in the process. The 49ers are no slouches on defense, either, as when they stuff the tackle box and take away the run game from Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs will be staring at several 2nd or 3rd and longs they will attempt to convert. Despite this being a relatively low Super Bowl total, the Under is still the way to go.
Pick: Under 47.5 Points
Touchdown Scorer: Deebo Samuel +140
Deebo Samuel is the best bet to get into the endzone, and this +140 price tag holds mouthwatering value. Samuel hasn’t scored in 3 straight games, and he was clearly not at 100% in terms of his health in those contests. However, after an extra week of rest, Samuel should come out fresh, and he could score a touchdown in the air or on the ground. Prior to his recent cold streak, Samuel had scored 11 touchdowns in his last 13 games and will have plenty of opportunities to do so once again. The Chiefs do a great job at covering up traditional receivers, but the deception Kyle Shanahan will have cooked up with Samuel as the focal point will lead to a few chances to find the endzone. Samuel can make a man miss in the open field and will likely be getting a few opportunities in the jet sweep. At +140 odds, Samuel is the way to go in the touchdown department.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Touchdown +140
Player Prop: Rashee Rice Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
Rashee Rice has been crucial to the Chiefs success this season. And with all eyes on Travis Kelce, he is a reliable second option for Mahomes and the Chiefs. The rookie wideout has flourished in his first season, hauling in just shy of 1,000 yards to kick off his NFL career. He’s gone over this line in 5 of his last 9 games and has finished with 45+ yards in each of those contests. Against the 49ers, I expect Mahomes to opt for short gains in the open field and allow Rice to make big plays against stranded tacklers. The 49ers struggle to contain explosive receivers, and Mahomes has the scrambling abilities to extend plays. Rice never gives up on a broken play and often gets the ball into his hands after clawing his way into some open field. This line is reasonable, and Rice will remain a cornerstone of the Chiefs offensive game plan.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
Super Bowl MVP: Travis Kelce +1700
This is a bet I’ve been eying since the start of the postseason, as the NFL script writers know exactly what they are doing here. While the Super Bowl MVP usually goes to a quarterback, that trend has been slowly shifting in recent years, with the QB winning in only 6 of the last 10 Super Bowls. This includes both the Chiefs previous victories. And if the Chiefs can take home their third Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era, I expect them to share the love a little bit and hook up Travis Kelce with a trophy. Additionally, the narrative surrounding Taylor Swift, and the millions of Swifties (and potentially new fans) that will be watching, sweetens the deal a little bit for the NFL. They would love nothing more than to see Kelce and Swift together on the stage postgame, celebrating a win, and an MVP trophy. Of course, Kelce would need a monstrous game, but at +1700 odds, this is absolutely a bet everyone should be sprinkling a few dollars on.
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