Tampa Bay Derby Prediction & Odds

Turn Back the Clock for Todd Pletcher

Pletcher dominated this race last decade. He won four times in five years starting with Verrazano’s score in 2013. Three of the four victories were by prohibitive favorites.

Tapit Trice is going to be heavily favored on the strength of his dominating victory over Shesterkin among others last time out.

Tapit Trice is a $1.3 million son of Wood Memorial winner Tapit. He ran third in his debut and returned to win in the mud in New York in December. His 2023 debut was the type of race that puts you firmly on the Derby radar.

Shesterkin was the favorite facing Tapit Trice last time out. He entered that race off a maiden score at Gulfstream Park. He will add blinkers on Saturday, an indication they want him to run fast early, and see if the speed holds.

Local Options for Tampa Bay Derby Picks

Seven of the 12 horses in the Tampa Bay Derby ran in last month’s Sam F Davis Stakes. While race winner Litigate is not running this weekend, runner-up Groveland, third-place Classic Car Wash, fourth across-the-line Classic Legacy, and fifth-place Zydeceaux are in the field.

Groveland is never respected in the wagering but seems to always run well. He has been in the money in all five starts, yet has only a single victory.

Classic Car Wash beat fairly low-level maidens in December, and then Florida bred allowance horses in January before rallying late last time out.

Champions Dream is a $425,000 son of Triple Crown winner Justify. Though he was eased in the Sam F Davis, his final race in 2022 was strong, winning the Grade 3 Nashua. He missed by a neck to Zydeceaux in the Pasco at Tampa in January.

Zydeceaux looks more like a sprinter than a horse that wants a ton of distance but should have the lead, and that can be dangerous.

Tampa Bay Derby Prediction

Tapit Trice is making his stakes debut, but anything close to his last effort should be good enough to beat this group. Shesterkin could be underrated. Sure he was dominated by his stablemate last time out, but now he has blinkers, his debut was impressive, and remember he was the favorite last time they ran. One or more of the horses from the Sam F Davis may prove to be a capable challenger, but they must run faster on Saturday to be a legit competition for Tapit Trice.

Tampa Bay Derby Picks: Tapit Trice (+160)