Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day five best bets Friday January 19

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day six

1pt Andrey Rublev to beat Sebastian Korda 3-0 at 5/2 (bet365)

1pt Amanda Anisimova to beat Paula Badosa at 27/20 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

Sebastian Korda v Andrey Rublev

When I looked over Friday’s Australian Open men’s coupon, nothing really leapt off the page.

Instead, it took a bit of digging to come up with a bet that might offer a spot of value.

Korda and Rublev have had similar routes to the third round – both survived five-set battles in their tournament openers before finding something close to top form in the next round, posting straight-sets victories.

But a look at the pair’s head-to-head record provides plenty of contrast.

Rublev has won both matches in straight sets, first in Miami in 2021 and, most recently, indoors in Gijon towards the end of 2022.

Now, there’s an argument to say Korda should have improved over the ensuing period, although I’m not sure that’s the case. While he did have the odd good week, the American was too inconsistent in 2023 and he could be in for more disappointment here.

Rublev served very well against Christopher Eubanks on Wednesday, losing only 14 points behind his own delivery. He won 85% of points on first serve which is the same number he posted in that Miami clash of 2021.

Korda is a better returner but perhaps the most notable stat in that head-to-head is the points won by Korda on his second serve – just 33% in Miami and 48% in Gijon. Rublev was 15 and 20 percentage points better in those matches and that’s an area I’d expect him to profit from.

Korda will need to keep his first-serve percentage high but even if he does, I feel these are two players with a similar game style, one of whom does most things just that little bit better.

Korda dominated Quentin Halys last time out but I doubt he’ll be able to pin Rublev back behind the baseline as often as he did the Frenchman.

Temperatures below 20C should make the conditions relatively slow and I’d suggest that would favour Rublev more.

Rublev is 4/9 to progress to the last 16 but I’m going to take a chance on him winning, once again, in straight sets.

That’s on offer at 5/2 and looks a tempting way to approach this one given what they’ve produced against each other in the past.

Amanda Anisimova v Paula Badosa

This looks the match of the day in the women’s draw and it features two players on the comeback trail after long periods away from the game.

Both have started this tournament in fine fashion.

Anisimova followed up her win over seed Liudmila Samsonova with a comfortable victory over Nadia Podoroska, while Badosa saw off Taylor Townsend and then Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, both in straight sets.

This should be the Spaniard’s toughest test of her comeback though and I’m tempted to get with Anisimova, who I’ve long admired.

I remember backing her at a huge price at the 2019 French Open where she agonisingly lost from a set up in the semi-finals as a teenager and at that point a big future appeared to lie in wait.

But shortly after that her father died unexpectedly. Then came the COVID shutdown, injuries were also an issue and last year she left the tour to take a break, citing burnout.

However, she cut a happy figure when speaking to the media after her first-round win and looks totally refreshed.

It would be easy to say Badosa has the higher ceiling – she’s a former world number two, after all – but Anisimova’s clear talent has not often had a good run to truly shine through.

She’s a player who loves the big stage having claimed eight seeded scalps at Grand Slams, despite still being only 22.

They have included Simona Halep at the French Open, Naomi Osaka here two years ago (both were reigning champions at the time) and Coco Gauff at Wimbledon.

I think she’ll be bang up for this and is worth a small bet as the underdog.

Posted at 1100 GMT on 18/01/24

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