Texas vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks, Predictions

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09 March 2023

Texas vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks, Predictions

Big 12 tournament action continues when Texas and Oklahoma State meet Thursday night. Although the Longhorns may win this game, our college basketball picks don't expect Tyrese Hunter's offense to be the reason for his team's success.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Oklahoma State Cowboys easily took care of its rival Oklahoma and now meets the Texas Longhorns in Round 2 of the Big 12 tournament.

The Cowboys have kept their tournament hopes alive, and as a 50/50 team, a dominating win last night sure won't hurt. However, a win today could push them over the edge. They arrived at the Big 12 tournament off a win against Texas Tech, which snapped a five-game losing streak for them.

After Texas lost its head coach due to off-the-court issues, you may have written the Longhorns off. However, they've managed to hold things together and look like contenders. They will enter the tournament with a drop in play, having lost two of their final three: however, they rectified some of that with a big-time win to close the regular season.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs. Oklahoma State.

Texas vs Oklahoma State best odds

Texas vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

I am not interested in picking a side on the total or spread here as I don't see much of an edge. Texas is clearly the more talented and better team and has beaten Oklahoma State twice this season for a reason. However, I'm not in a rush to fade a program still fighting for its NCAA tournament lives. That means to the prop market we go.

I'm fading Tyrese Hunter tonight. My projections make his total nearly three full points lower than we have. However, OKSU does an excellent job shutting down your primary sources of offense, and I expect it'll do a great job on Hunter tonight.

For starters, there are not many better teams in college basketball defending high-ball screens than the Cowboys. They rank 16th nationally in points per pick-and-roll and first among all Power Five schools. While Hunter hasn't exactly been an effective pick-and-roll scorer for Texas this season, it hasn't stopped the Longhorns from utilizing him in these situations.

Behind Carr, he's the second-most used player in pick-and-roll sets, setting around 38%. He's been pretty terrible when used there too. He's shot 27% and scored just .65 points per possession. Oklahoma State is only going to make things worse here for Hunter.

Secondly, look at the data we have in front of us. Hunter doesn't play well against OKSU. No one game is ever created equally, but it's extremely obvious that the Cowboys know how to slow him down. In two games combined against them this season, he's scored just 10 points and shot an eFG of just 25%. That tells a story of frustration and one I'm not expecting to change in this spot.

This is a low number, but I still see value. At +100, it's the best bet on the board and what could be an ugly game.

My best bet: Tyrese Hunter Under 9.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)

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Texas vs Oklahoma State spread analysis

The Longhorns opened up this matchup as a 6-point favorites and have seen that line moved to 6.5 in several places. In regard to against the spread records, Oklahoma State is 16-16 ATS this year and the Horns are 14-17

Texas will win this game because the Cowboys will eventually go on a scoring drought, and the Longhorns will pull away. However, I'm not ready to say more than that. This Oklahoma State team has a way of hanging around and being a thorn in your side.

Of course, it helps that it is tremendously good defensively, and its players all know their roles. If you're looking for a spread bet here, wait in-game for a better number than the one pre-tip.

Texas vs Oklahoma State Over/Under analysis

I"m pricing this game at 137, and I see numbers Over 140 across the board. The problem you'll have with many of these tournament games is the late-game fouling.

You get more of it as teams are more desperate than ever to extend games. With that in mind, I don't have enough edge of having a side here. We've talked a ton about the matchup here, and it's worth noting that Texas's defense has improved. It now allows just .94 points per possession per game, and two months ago, that was Over a point.

We already know Oklahoma State's defense is elite because it's been that all season. With that in mind, I'm leaning Under and will grab it if I get 145 or better in-game.