Texas vs Oklahoma St prediction: Big 12 Championship picks

Championship week has arrived, and this year’s conference title matchups seem to carry more weight than usual. The College Football Playoff race is as competitive as ever, every team still in the hunt has something to play for this weekend. It’s also the last year of the four-team CFP format, which likely means these games won’t have as high of stakes in future years.

The Texas Longhorns (11-1) are one of the few one-loss teams on the outside looking in entering this weekend, as they rank No. 7 in the latest CFP update. Both Oregon and Ohio State are ahead of Texas, meaning Steve Sarkisian’s team is going to need some help this weekend to get in the dance.

Texas can put itself in a better position by taking care of business in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Longhorns haven’t won a conference title since 2009, but they are favored by more than two touchdowns to do just that in their final year before leaving for the SEC.

Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys are standing in the Longhorns’ way from a storybook season. Oklahoma State (9-3) needed a huge comeback effort to record a 40-34 win over BYU in the regular-season finale to even make the title game, but this team has been a huge surprise for several weeks now. OSU entered the year with a preseason win total of 6.5.

The Cowboys have exceeded expectations in the betting market for much of the year, posting a 7-5 record against the spread while going 6-6 on totals. Texas is 6-5-1 ATS and 8-4 to the under so far this season.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, believes Texas should roll, listing the Longhorns as 15-point favorites with an over/under of 55.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns

Time/TV: 11 a.m. CT, ABC

Point spread (from Caesars): Texas -15

Over/under: 55

Moneyline: Texas -700, Oklahoma State +500

Analysis: Because Texas is such a huge favorite and the total has climbed as high as 55, it’s best to explore the player prop market for a betting angle on the game. If you believe the Longhorns should roll, there are many ways to bet on just that with prop bets.

For one, backup running back Jaydon Blue is worth monitoring in the player prop market ahead of this game. He has a rushing total of 30.5 at one shop, which would be an over worth taking after his 121-yard performance. Texas prefers to use a committee approach since losing Jonathan Brooks, as evidenced by CJ Baxter’s eight first-half rushing attempts compared to Blue’s five first-half carries.

But when shopping at Caesars, the best way to bet on a Texas blowout might be fading the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II has a rushing prop of 103.5 yards and he has cleared that mark in eight of his last nine games. Yet, teams struggle to run on the Texas defensive front, which is giving up just 2.9 yards per carry this year.

Gordon is in line for his worst performance of the season with a projection of 80 rushing yards while facing this daunting run defense in a negative game script. It might not sound fun to fade Gordon, but it’s the best bet for this matchup.

Best bet: Ollie Gordon II Under 103.5 rushing yards (-119 via Caesars)