The Open winner will embrace the quirks better than most

The Open Championship, or British Open to some, is just different. And if you want to find the winner, you’d better be aware of all the little quirks the oldest championship in golf affords.

Links golf is a thinking game, but the biggest variable is almost always the weather. A long time ago a former world No.1 told me there generally is only 25 percent of the field who can win The Open.

He eliminated half the field who end up on the “bad side of the draw” and then speculated only half of those players had the talent and mental toughness to actually win a major.

In 2014 at Royal Liverpool this was certainly the case, with Rory McIlroy’s side of the draw getting calm conditions in the opening two rounds before high winds battered the others.

Now the forecast this year calls for the chance of rain and wind across all four rounds, most likely on the weekend, but it doesn’t appear to have a significant advantage to an early/late or late/early start.

But then, forecasts on the English coast are notoriously hard to get right. Like the iconic old Crowded House classic says… you can get “four seasons in one day.” And certain holes become beasts if they flip from downwind to cross wind or into the wind.

Tuesday evening’s official forecast expected high winds on Wednesday before the following during competition.

Thursday 20th: Mostly sunny, small chance of a light shower at first. (Rain: 0-1mm). Dry with prolonged sunshine from midday. Becoming rather cloudy by dawn with a small chance of a light shower. (Rain: 0-1 mm). High: 16°C (61°F). Low: 14°C (57°F). Winds: NW 6-10 mph gusts 12-15 mph becoming W to NW 8-12mph gust 15-20mph.

Friday 21st: Rather cloudy with a chance of a few light to moderate showers. (Rain: 0-1 mm, 10% 1-2 mm). High: 16°C (61°F). Low: 14°C (57°F). Winds: W to NW 10-15mph gust 15-20mph.

Saturday 22nd/Sunday 23rd: Low confidence for details but a longer spell of rain looks more likely on Saturday, then perhaps turning showery into Sunday. A chance of strong winds at times and temperature expected to recover.

Be sure to check the latest forecast possible close to the opening tee time and if a perceived advantage presents itself, jump on any matchups you can find that pit a morning versus an afternoon player.

Regardless of what each player faces, the key is the attitude towards it. The minute a player starts lamenting the conditions they are playing in, they have more than likely ruled themselves out of winning.

The next quirk you cannot ignore are strategic pot bunkers. Unlike most weeks on the PGA TOUR where players will actually aim recovery shots at bunkers or prefer to miss a tee shot on a bunker side rather than a rough side, the sand at Royal Liverpool is diabolical.

“The one thing I've noticed about this golf course is anytime my ball is going towards a bunker I'm very nervous. I'm just going to try and avoid the bunkers at all costs,” said world No.1 Scottie Scheffler. “I feel like at St. George's, a lot of the bunkers had a tiny bit of an upslope before you got to the wall face, and here it seems like the faces of every bunker is almost a downslope going towards it.”

Collin Morikawa, the 2021 Open champion, went as far to call them virtual penalty areas.

“They've always talked about staying out of the bunkers (here), but it's really true. It's a shot penalty if you hit it in these fairway bunkers,” Morikawa said. “So that's step No. 1 this week is to stay out of as many fairway bunkers as possible.”

So perhaps we need to pay attention to players who are accurate from the tee and also those who are great sand savers.

For the record, the 10 best PGA TOUR players this season in driving accuracy who are in the Open field are: Russell Henley, Morikawa, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Brendon Todd, Patrick Cantlay, Zach Johnson, Brian Harman, David Lingmerth and Sepp Straka.

The 10 best PGA TOUR players this season in sand save percentage who are in the Open field are: Justin Rose, Byeong-Hun An, Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Brian Harman, Andrew Putnam, Tommy Fleetwood, Danny Willett, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Min Woo Lee.

Another quirk to be wary of… internal OB! The par-5 18th has pot bunkers down the left but now out of bounds stakes down the right side that are basically parallel to the tee shot. So those thinking it’s a nice easy finish need to think again.

With all the above being said recent times have shown chalk and those with recent momentum contend and win at the Open Championship. Yes, Todd Hamilton and Ben Curtis won it out of the blue, but probably not since Darren Clarke have we been truly surprised by the eventual winner. They were all firing at the time of victory.

And with Rory, and Tiger Woods before him, as winners at Royal Liverpool… we have to lean heavily to those at the top end of the odds board, as much as some don’t want to!

So without further ado, here are my favorite options for the 151st Open Championship.

I’ve spelled out in greater detail why I am a Rory believer again here. But in a nutshell, if not now, then when!? McIlroy knows the course, he’s coming off not just a win, but a win with two incredible closing birdies, and he’s feeling like his old confident self again. My only concern are the short odds. If they bother you consider a play on first round leader, like he was in 2014, at +1800 or top five after the opening round at +400. That way, if he plays well, you might get an early return, but if he has one of his notorious major slower starts, but is still within striking range, you might get the chance at a higher outright number.

This Aussie won’t give up the claret jug without a fight. He’s already been joking with his mates about drinking from it again and admitting to nearly shedding tears when having to officially hand it back. He was T9 at the PGA Championship and fourth last month at the U.S. Open. Also loves to invoke rivalry in his mind and McIlroy’s Scottish win (and subsequent favoritism) will fire up Smith in his title defense even further.

A contender both times he’s played in the Open, with a T12 and T4 last year playing in the final group on Sunday. He’s a better player now. And smarter. Won the Memorial Tournament after learning from his runner-up finish at the PGA Championship. Has learned when to play aggressive and when to dial back. But must the avoid bunkers…

Was T2 here in 2014. Has four top 15s in the Open. Coming off a recent win and also had three half-decent rounds at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. Another FRL leader option, as he is ninth on TOUR in Round 1 scoring average.

Has a second and fourth in previous Open Championships. Was hovering all week at Genesis Scottish Open and now heads home to England to his favored conditions. Needs some luck to win, but should be in the mix come Sunday.

Mr. Imagination is a wildcard every year at the Open. Has four top 10s since becoming the 2017 champion and gives a little bit of value because if he’s on, he will be there when the whips are cracking.

Xander Schauffele +105 & Tyrrell Hatton -110

If you can parlay the two together for a top 20 you will get some juicier odds, but they both showed enough at the Genesis Scottish Open to suggest they are in form at the right time. Hatton arguably should have won from his position through nine holes of the final round last week so he will be keen to atone.

The German has five top 10s on the DP World Tour this year including two runner ups. Was T25 last week and is an outsider for the Ryder Cup. Was third on European points list until Robert MacIntyre bumped him down a slot last week.

His accuracy from the tee is paramount while he is the 11th best PGA TOUR player in the field from the sand this season. Also coming off a runner up at the John Deere Classic recently and rates 16th in proximity to the hole and 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting.