The Strikeout: 2023 fantasy baseball pitcher preview

“The Strikeout” is a column by Diego Ynzunza dedicated to all things fantasy baseball.

Welcome to week two of The Strikeout. This week, I’ll be discussing some pitchers I’m looking to target in drafts. Keep in mind that starting/relief pitching this year is as volatile as ever, so you want to get as much surefire production as possible.

Beginning with starters, here are my top 10 pitchers that I believe will produce similar results to each other:

1. Jacob DeGrom
2. Corbin Burnes
3. Spencer Strider
4. Sandy Alcantara
5. Gerrit Cole
6. Justin Verlander
7. Aaron Nola
8. Max Scherzer
9. Brandon Woodruff
10. Shohei Ohtani

The two exceptions would be Jacob DeGrom and Shohei Ohtani.

Looking at DeGrom first, I’m ecstatic about the opportunity to get him in drafts this year. His NFC ADP is 31 as of now, and I think that as spring training rolls around and we get reports of him healthy and throwing consistently in the high 90s again, that will only rise.

DeGrom is a generational talent. He came back last year and struck out 102 guys in 64.1 innings. His K% of 42.7 was down a bit from 2021, but still above his career norms from 2020 and before. The only issue is injuries. If he’s able to stay healthy, he will be the best pitcher in baseball. I worry about his ability to sustain another 200-inning season — something he hasn’t done since 2019 — especially with his focus on maintaining a high effort throughout the entirety of his starts. He was in the 99th percentile last year of all MLB pitchers in fastball velocity. In 2019, he averaged 96.9 mph on his fastball, whereas in 2020-2022 he averaged above 98.5. Again, I still believe that he has another high percentile outcome in him, and I will be betting in drafts that this will be the year he is able to put it all together and perform at an MVP level as a starting pitcher.

With Ohtani, the reservations I have are in his workload. I just don’t believe that it is sustainable for him to be hitting and pitching the way he has been. So far, since he’s committed to doing both full-time, he hasn’t sustained any major injuries. However, I have a hard time believing that an injury isn’t in his future. To anyone else who is willing to take the risk at his NFC ADP of 9, by all means, I hope he thrives on your team. But if I’m going to take him there as my first pick, I need to have more reassurance that he will safely be able to accumulate stats throughout the year, and I just don’t see that happening — especially with the news of his rest days being limited even more this year.

Looking into the mid-rounds, three guys I’m looking to target are Zac Gallen, Dustin May and Nick Lodolo.

Gallen is a flat-out stud. In 184 innings last year, he struck out 192 guys with a 2.54 ERA. While his xERA (3.17) says that there could be some regression coming, his draft cost of being the 32nd pitcher off the board and 74th overall means that you can wait on a guy like him. I believe he will have similar production to guys going 15 or more picks earlier, like Shane Bieber and Zach Wheeler. He is also above average in Stuff, Pitching and Location +, according to Eno Sarris’ Stuff + model. I also have full confidence in the D-backs pitching coach, Brent Strom. Strom spent years leading the Astros’ pitching staff, and was at the forefront of transforming the careers of guys like Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and others.

May is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but the Dodgers could really use a pitcher like him in their rotation. Currently, he is being drafted as the 62nd pitcher off the board, as an SP3/4. While I think management will handle him with kid gloves to an extent, I believe that if he performs well at the beginning of the season, they will give him a longer leash as the year goes on and can thus return even higher value than SP3/4. You can expect one IL stint, especially since he is less than a year removed from returning after his Tommy John.

However, when he’s on the mound, May is electric. He has a 115 Stuff + from Sarris’ model and gets nasty movement on all of his pitches. His ERA of 4.50 last year in only 30 innings prompted an xERA of 3.67 — I expect there to be some improvement in that area. I also believe there’s an opportunity for May to decrease his sinker usage. It seems that batters are sitting on that pitch, as it’s the one he throws most often. However, it also gets fewer whiffs and gets hit the hardest out of any of his pitches. The xSLG on his sinker last year was .479, as well as an xWOBA of .368 — numbers that are drastically higher than those of his other pitches. I think a combination of getting stronger and healthier, having an offseason to prepare, as well as a potential decrease in sinker usage, can lead to May returning SP2 value.

As you can see, there is a trend in the players I’m talking about today — they all feature electric stuff. Nick Lodolo is no different. His K% of 29.7 last year was 7 points higher than the MLB average of 22.1. He can get whiffs and will rack up strikeouts for you this year. In 103.1 innings last year, he racked up 131 K’s. He sports a 117 Stuff+ from Sarris’ model, and well below the league average in xBA and xSLG last year. With an increased workload, I think he can return close to SP2 value as the 54th pitcher off the board, currently around SP3 value. The big problem for Lodolo last year was walks. But when you dig into the numbers, you see that his command only got better as the year went on. In fact, from April to September, his WHIP improved each month. As he gets more comfortable in the big leagues, as well as with another offseason to prepare, I can see him as a prime breakout candidate and someone who could easily be drafted in the top 100 of next year’s draft.

I want to touch a bit on relief pitchers, specifically which guys I’m counting on for reliable saves this year. To start off, just by principle, I’m not touching the players that are going in the top 50 of NFBC drafts. This includes Edwin Diaz, Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader and Jordan Romano. Relief pitchers are extremely volatile. If I’m going to spend a top-50 pick on a closer, I need every assurance that they will give me 30+ saves and keep their job for the entirety of the season. I see issues with all four of these guys, and I don’t feel comfortable taking them at their asking price.

I have three main players I’m targeting for saves this year — Felix Bautista, Ryan Helsley and Carlos Estévez.

After the trade deadline last July, Bautista rattled off 14 saves to end the season. His strikeout numbers are wicked, as he gets whiffs 53.3% of the time he throws it. While he does sport some small walk issues, he will have a long leash, as Baltimore is not expected to be at the top of the AL East. I see him racking up 25+ saves, with a sub-3 ERA and a number of strikeouts comparable to the guys going in the top 50.

Helsley is a flamethrower who I believe will keep the Cardinals’ closer job throughout the year. His xWOBA, xSLG and xERA were all in the top 1% in the league last year. He has all the traits of a top closer, including big strikeout numbers. The only issue I could see is if the Cardinals decide to make their closing situation a timeshare with Helsley and fellow flamethrower Giovanny Gallegos. Last year, Helsley got seven of his 19 saves in September, which leads me to believe that they will have more faith in him to be their go-to ninth-inning guy.

Another guy I would keep an eye out for is Carlos Estévez, the new Angels closer. I see Estévez really thriving as he is finally able to escape the horrors of Coors Field. The tools he carries with him should help him keep the closer job and rack up saves — in spite of the Angels’ poor track record of developing pitching.

Next week, The Strikeout will preview the first/third base positions.

“The Strikeout” runs every Monday.