Fantasy Baseball Pitchers That Could Improve
The strikeout rate is one of the most important metrics for a pitcher. The data available in the offseason can help us to predict pitchers' success. We will test some different metrics and see which ones correlate most strongly with the strike out rate. Once we find the ones that do, we will look for pitchers who stand out in those categories.
The stats below are from 2019 through 2022. They are: K% (strikeout rate), SwStr% and CSW%. The primary fastball velocity is the one the pitcher most commonly throws on 0-2, 1-1, and 2- 2 counts. First Pitch Strike is percent of 0/0 pitches in the strike zone.
Fantasy Baseball Pitchers That Could Improve are: K% (strikeout rate), SwStr% and CSW%. Primary Fastball Sw Str% is the swinging strike rate the pitcher put up on his most commonly thrown fastball.
Fantasy Baseball Pitchers That Could Improve is a sample of 312 pitcher seasons.
The closer the number gets to +1, the stronger the positive correlation is. The closer it gets, however, to -1 the negative correlation gets stronger.
Fantasy Baseball Pitchers That Could Improve is a tool to help players improve their performance. It's a correlation analysis tool. The winner is whiff% with a very strong 0.9 correlation coefficient. CSW% is close behind at 0:85. Velocity, first pitch strike rate and BB% don't matter. The primary fastball takes up 35-50% of a pitcher's arsenal. SwStr% on the primary heater has little correlation with the other pitches.
The winner is whiff% with a strong 0.9 correlation coefficient. CSW% is a close third at 0:85. Velocity, first pitch strike rate and first-pitch strike percentage don't matter. The primary fastball takes up 35-50% of a pitcher's arsenal. The strikeout pitch is only a minority of the pitcher’s arsenal, so it doesn't predict the rest of his pitch performance.
Fantasy Baseball Pitchers That Could Improve are shown in scatter plots. The strongest relationship is K% vs. Whiff%:
Luis Garcia's strikeout rate of 26.4% in 2021 is the lowest among pitchers with a 30% whiff rate or above.
Corbin Burnes has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in recent memory. He doesn't have to worry about throwing the first pitch in the zone.
Alex Lange is the only player who sticks out in the scatter plot. The league average whiff rate in 2022 was 25.5%, and the league's strikeout rate was 22. 5%. The data is based on 250 batters faced, about 10 starts worth of game.
Branayan Bello is a rookie who has a good Whiff% but a low K%. He has improved his strikeout rate recently. He is expected to improve his K% in the future.
Roansy Contreras is a two-pitch pitcher with good whiff rate and good strikeout rate. His slider has a 23.4% SwStr% and a .237 xwOBA against in 2023. However, his four-seamer has an 8.6% SWStr%, which is bad for hitters.
Edward Cabrera had the 24th-best whiff rate in this data sample at 31.3%, but his K% was much lower at 25.8%. He is another young starter at the age of 24. He has a changeup (33%), a curveball (21%) and a fastball (20%).
Jordan Montgomery is the fourth pitcher in this list. He's 29 and has a career strikeout rate of 22.8%. He posted the 83rd-best whiff rate in the sample.
Patrick Sandoval is one of the game's better pitchers at generating whiffs. He is ranked fifth in the list of pitchers that could improve. The plot and data are available in a searchable database. There are five names to consider. The data is available for fantasy baseball players.
Fantasy Baseball Pitchers That Could Improve are listed in the app.
