Titans vs. Steelers Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 9

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30 October 2023

Titans vs. Steelers Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 9

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, and we're making our top Titans vs. Steelers predictions for TNF based on the best NFL odds.

In Week 8, the Tennessee Titans notched a 28-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. This win raised their season record to 3-0 in true home games and 6-0 after a bye week under the leadership of head coach Mike Vrabel.

Rookie Quarterback Will Levis etched his name in NFL history by becoming the third quarterback, along with Fran Tarkenton and Marcus Mariota, to throw four touchdowns in their NFL debut. He is confirmed to be making his second career start Thursday.

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost 20-10 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8. Starting quarterback Kenny Pickett exited the game during the second quarter with a rib injury, forcing backup Mitchell Trubisky into action for the second half. Trubisky was 10-for-17 passing for just 78 yards and tossed two interceptions across three possessions in the fourth quarter; however, Pickett was a full participant Wednesday at practice and doesn't carry an injury designation ahead of Thursday.

The Steelers are 4-3 despite and on pace to have a 17th consecutive winning season under the leadership of head coach Mike Tomlin.

Here is our best Titans vs. Steelers prediction for Thursday Night Football, and don't miss our Titans vs. Steelers NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Titans vs. Steelers prediction: Thursday Night Football

Under 36.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

This 36.5-point total is the lowest of any game on the Week 9 slate, but it may not be low enough in this battle of backup quarterbacks. Thus, we are following the trend that primetime Unders are 18-7 this season (entering Monday Night Football) and 156-102-3 since 2019.

Levis established an instant connection with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in his first NFL start, as Hopkins had three touchdown catches against the Falcons after having zero through the first six games. In the process, he became the first Titan with three touchdown receptions in a game since Kenny Britt in 2010. However, Pittsburgh has the answer for Tennessee’s newfound passing threat, as Joey Porter Jr. entered last week with PFF’s best man coverage grade (91.1) of any cornerback with a minimum of 100 coverage snaps.

Porter was pivotal in holding Jaguars receiver Christian Kirk under his projected receiving total (four receptions, 46 yards). And while Jacksonville exploited the other half of the field against Pittsburgh, with Calvin Ridley going for six catches and 83 yards, the Titans only have one other wide receiver (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine) with more than six catches on the season.

Pittsburgh was outgained 377 to 261 by the Jaguars and is now the only team left in the NFL to be outgained by its opponent in every game this season. The Steelers have finished five games with one or fewer offensive touchdowns. Before ending the game against Jacksonville with three consecutive turnovers, they punted on six of nine of their possessions that started in their territory. That adds to the league-high 55.6% of their drives they began the week with that they punted on when starting on their side of the field, per Sharp Football Analysis.

This is a three-star play despite how well Levis played in his debut, as life on the road in the NFL is much different. The Steelers entered last week in the top five of the NFL in completion rate allowed (37.9%), and passer rating (48.0) when pressuring the opposing quarterback, and Levis was sacked twice and hit 11 total times by a Falcons defense that was tied for 22nd in sacks before Week 8. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has not totaled 400 yards of offense in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

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Titans vs. Steelers best odds

Though all of our best sports betting apps are in unison with a total of 36.5 points, FanDuel is our go-to shop, given that it is the only one charging less than the standard -110 vig to back the Under. With injuries to both starting quarterbacks to monitor, there is a chance this total moves this week, but significant line moves are less likely on a short week as it gives each quarterback less time to practice and get healthy.

Titans vs. Steelers odds for Thursday Night Football

Most of our best sports betting sites had a look-ahead total of 37.5 but opened on Sunday night at 36.5 after Week 8’s results were known. The only exception was FanDuel, whose total was bet down to 36.5 from an opening number of 37.5. Early betting splits are 53/47 in favor of the Under, which has cashed in each of Pittsburgh’s last five games.

All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites, and all but FanDuel (-114) are juiced to at least -115 to back the favorites. Caesars and bet365 were the only shops to open as high as Pittsburgh -3 on Sunday night, but Titans backers quickly weighed in and moved the line down a half-point off the key number. Fifty-two percent of the early wagers have back the Steelers, who are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games against teams with a losing record.