Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/11/23)

Another day, another dollar in the NBA and we have a small, four-game slate worth of NBA action on Saturday night. We have some fun matchups tonight, though, with some surprising storylines to monitor.

We have just one team playing on a back-to-back today, with the Celtics welcoming in Toronto after taking care of Brooklyn last night. Let's take a look to see what kind of value this Saturday slate is providing us.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 6:00 PM EST on Saturday, November 11. 

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NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Toronto Raptors (+8) @ Boston Celtics (221 total)

I'll start tonight out in Boston. I mentioned previously that the Celtics are on a back-to-back, but it is important to note that Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday only played 33 minutes last night; while Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown played 25, 27, and 29 minutes respectively. Boston has ranked second in defensive efficiency (103.6) to this point in the season and actually looks to show some positive regression tonight, projecting to a 110.7 defensive efficiency.

The Raptors have struggled to put points on the board this season, scoring 109.6 per game to this point in the season. They've been heating up a bit, scoring 116.3 across their last three games. They are due for some regression, and I think the Boston defense stymies them in this one. For that reason, I'll ride the TT under.

The Pick: Raptors Team Total UNDER 106.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)

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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads

Miami Heat (+4.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (228.5 total)

I'll head down to Atlanta for my second play of the night, as Miami and the Hawks go to battle in an Eastern Conference showdown.

The Hawks have been incredibly efficient on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second in the Association in offensive efficiency (115.9). They've been fine on the other side of things, bringing in a 111.8 defensive efficiency, which ranks 19th. On the other hand, Miami ranks 21st in offensive efficiency (106.7) and 12th in defensive efficiency (107.8).

The Hawks have a measurable advantage in this one. While I'm mildly concerned with their offensive regression (114.04, -1.86 projected regression), I still think they take care of business in this one. I'll back the Hawks, taking them to cover here.

The pick: Hawks -4.5 (-110, FanDuel)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite ML Parlay: ATL + BOS (-101, FD)

Favorite Teaser: Magic +8, CLE/GS u227.5 (+100, FD)

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