Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (2/28/23)
We took yesterday off as it was an unusually light Monday for games with only four but today we are primed for a large slate of NBA action as we have ten games on the final day of February.
I will be avoiding the biggest spreads today and focusing on a few games with more moderate spreads that I think are too low or too high. One theme here with the picks today is that we will be trusting some road teams more than home teams, which always makes me a little nervous but I try to not weigh home/road splits too much into the equation, though they certainly warrant some consideration.
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, February 28th.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 116-121-1
- Against the Spread: 56-60-1
- Game/Team Totals: 12-27
- Moneyline Parlay: 16-23
- Teasers: 29-11
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (+4.5) @ Toronto Raptors (220 total)
This is an interesting game tonight between two teams that could be heading to the play-in series for the NBA playoffs in the Eastern Conference. I had pretty much left the Bulls for dead, but they're only a half-game out of the 10th and final spot in the play-in, while the Raptors are sitting in the 9th seed currently and decided to go after a player (Poeltl) instead of trading off any major assets.
I have had a hard time getting either of these teams right this season, they've both been pretty inconsistent and have underperformed on the whole when compared with their preseason expectations. While the Raptors come into this game in good form and get Fred Van Vleet back in the mix, it should be pointed out that they've been beating some pretty bad teams over the last few weeks and I'm still very skeptical about just how good they are.
The Bulls, despite being only 4-6 over their last ten games, actually have the higher net rating over that span and have been a team that seems to play up or down to their competition. They have DeRozan back in the lineup now and I think they'll battle in this one with every game now down the stretch being crucial for their chances at the postseason. They've been pretty decent on the road as underdogs, too, going 11-9 ATS in those situations. I think Chicago can win here or at least keep this within a possession or two, give me the Bulls and the points.
The Pick: Bulls +4.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks (-5) @ Brooklyn Nets (227.5 total)
The Bucks continue to be the hottest team in the league and have now won 14 games in a row. Some guys don't like betting on streaking teams, but I'm trying not to hold that against them and I went against the Bucks with the Suns this weekend, only to see Milwaukee pull that game out even without Giannis.
The Greek Freak should be back in the lineup tonight and that means the Bucks are operating at full capacity here against a Nets team that has been in shambles since the trade deadline. They've lost four of their last give games including an embarrassing 44-point loss to Chicago in there. Right now, the Bucks are playing as well as anyone, and five points feel like nothing here even on the road as they simply have way too much talent at every position for the Nets. I'm backing the Bucks and I think this one could get ugly if Brooklyn doesn't hang with them early.
Milwaukee is 10-5-2 ATS as road favorites this season and I expect them to add to that solid number with a big win tonight.
The Pick: Bucks -5 (-110)
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Sacramento Kings (-2.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (238 total)
We just saw this game on Sunday and it feels lazy to pick the team that won that game, but like C'MON why are the Kings only 2.5 favorites against the Thunder with SGA already ruled out? I have been racking my brain for an answer and all I can come up with is that De'Aaron Fox is questionable and that bettors have a lot of respect for OKC based on how good they've been ATS this season at home and in general as underdogs.
But the Kings handled this team on Sunday and led by double-digits for most of the game. OKC had a late fourth-quarter rally that brought the final margin down to only nine points, but the Kings were in control the entire time. I love how scrappy the Thunder are, but this Kings team is legit and they should take care of business here tonight, especially with their focus being on securing a top-4 seed for the playoffs and homecourt advantage in round one.
For those trend hunters, we like that Sacto is 9-5 ATS as road favorites, too. I think the Kings finish the season sweep here in style (already 2-0 vs. OKC) and cover this spread fairly easily.
The Pick: SAC -2.5 (-110)
NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers
Favorite Money Line Parlay: DEN +MEM + ATL = (+112 DK)
Underdog TEASER (buying 5 points)
CHI +9.5, IND +12.5, MIN +11.5 = (+130 DK)
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