Toledo vs. Bowling Green Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12

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13 November 2023

Toledo vs. Bowling Green Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12

The Toledo Rockets visit the Bowling Green Falcons on Tuesday, and there are significant MAC Championship Game implications on the line, so we have you covered with our top Toledo vs. Bowling Green predictionbased on the best college football odds.

With a victory against Eastern Michigan in Week 11, Toledo (9-1, 6-0 MAC) secured the MAC West division crown while remaining the only unbeaten team in MAC play. With their ninth consecutive win following an opening week 30-28 defeat to Illinois, the Rockets have now clinched bowl eligibility for the seventh time since 2015.

Bowling Green (6-4, 4-2 MAC) boasts the second-longest winning streak among MAC teams, having won four consecutive games — three by double digits. The Falcons have not had a four-game win streak since 2015. They achieved bowl eligibility following a dominant 49-19 victory over Kent State last week.

Hereis our best Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college footballbetting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Toledo vs. Bowling Greenprediction: Week 12

Under 52.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Bowling Green did not miss the services of running back TerionStewart for at least one week, as he was kept out of last week’s win over KentState with an injured ankle. Though backup Ta’Ron Keith filled in admirably withcareer highs in rushing yards (103) and receiving yards (130), we are tempering our expectations going forward as those numbers came against a Golden Flashesdefense that entered the game ranked 85th in rush success and 129th in pass success.

If Stewart is again out, Bowling Green will find life much moredifficult offensively against a Toledo defense that entered last week ranked inthe top 15 in pass success and finishing drives. That will put even morepressure on Falcons quarterback Connor Bazelak, who has a 4-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio inconference play while completing fewer than 57% of his passes.

Thus, a teamthat ranks in the top 40 in the country in rush rate will be taken out of itscomfort zone if Toledo controls the line of scrimmage like it has all season(it is fifth in the MAC in line yards). And do not be fooled by the Rocketsallowing 23 points last week to Eastern Michigan, as most of that came ingarbage time as they led 35-3 at the half. The Eagles totaled just 106 yardsand had nine first downs over the first 30 minutes last week.

Bowling Green’s winning streak has been spurred by a defensethat has allowed 17 points per game through the four-game stretch. The Falconsentered last week ranked in the top 42 in PFF’s coverage and tackling grades,and their disciplined defense should be able to slow down a Rockets offensethat topped 31 points just once in the previous four games.

This is a three-star play, as the Over has cashed in all fourgames in which the Falcons have been favored but is just 2-3-1 when they havebeen underdogs this season. In addition, the Under is 3-1-1 when Bowling Greenhas been an underdog since the start of last season.

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Toledo vs. Bowling Green best odds

Thereis a one-point difference between the low and high end of this total among our best sports betting apps, so Under backers benefit from the best line at BetMGM, bet365,or Caesars.

Recency bias may drive this line higher, as the Over has cashed inthe last two meetings between these teams, and the two teams have combined for56-plus points in both.

The juice being tilted toward the Over at FanDuel (-115) suggests it will meet its competitors at a higher number, but we wouldadvise backing the total of 52.5 now in case the line never gets to 53 orhigher before Tuesday’s kickoff.

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Toledo vs. Bowling Green odds

Therehas been non-stop movement toward the Over since the line opened at our best sports betting sites, especiallyat FanDuel, at which the total was 47.5 on Sunday afternoon and spiked to 50.5within a few hours.

Meanwhile, bet365 was much later to reveal its opening number, but itstill increased from 52 to 52.5 by the end of Sunday night. The Over has cashedin four of Toledo’s previous five November road games.

Thereis a significant difference among our best sportsbooks regarding the pointspread, as there are lines on either side of the key number of 10.

FanDuel isthe lone shop offering Toledo at -9.5 (-115), while Caesars is the only one at-10.5 (-110). FanDuel's line got as high as -11.5, but Bowling Greenbackers weighed in heavily and drove the line down two full points. The Rocketsare 5-1 ATS in their last six November games as road favorites.