Ball State vs. Bowling Green Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 10

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30 October 2023

Ball State vs. Bowling Green Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 10

The Bowling Green Falcons play host to the Ball State Cardinals in the kickoff to a Wednesday MAC doubleheader, and we offer our best Ball State vs. Bowling Green prediction based on the best college football odds.

Ball State (2-6, 1-3 MAC) is in last place in the MAC West and has the division’s worst point differential (-103). However, the Cardinals are looking to build off the momentum of their first conference win, a 24-17 home victory over Central Michigan in Week 8 ahead of their Week 9 bye.

Currently, Bowling Green, holding a 4-4 overall record with a 2-2 standing in the MAC, stands out in the MAC East division with a consecutive two-game winning streak, securing victories against Buffalo and Akron. Although they are at a .500 win-loss ratio in conference play, their two MAC East losses include one against the division-leading Miami (OH) Redhawks, underscoring the competitive nature of the MAC East division.

Here is our best Ball State vs. Bowling Green prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ball State vs. Bowling Green prediction: Week 10

Ball State +6.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

After starting the season just 1-5 ATS, Ball State has covered consecutive games by an average of 11.25 points. The Cardinals allow the third-most passing yards per game in the MAC (236.9) and have been exposed by efficient aerial attacks, but they have a stout run defense that allows just 123.3 rushing yards per game, good for second in the conference. Bowling Green is not built to take advantage of the weaker parts of the Cardinals' defense.

Falcons quarterback Camden Orth has single-digit passing attempts in four of seven games this season, which will not expose a Cardinals secondary that brought back just two of their top eight defensive backs and safeties in terms of experience. Instead, Bowling Green will be constantly running into the teeth of arguably one of the conference’s best linebacking crops. This unit will look to help Ball State’s ascent under Mike Neu, who has guided the team to a top 82 defensive SP+ ranking since 2020.

Meanwhile, this is still a Falcons defense that ranked 125th in defensive SP+ last season. Bowling Green will have its hands full with Kent State transfer Marquez Cooper, who is coming off a game where he rushed for 162 yards and a touchdown and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt on 26 carries. It was Cooper’s 15th career 100-yard game, and considering Bowling Green ranks 93rd in Defensive Line Yards (sixth in the MAC), a consistent ground attack led by Cooper (his 584 rushing yards are tied for fifth in the conference) should help Ball State stay within the number.

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Ball State vs. Bowling Green best odds

This line is as sharp as it gets, as all of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the +6.5 spread at -110 juice. The only shop that differs is BetRivers, which charges slightly higher -113 juice to take the +6.5 points. We would not put anyone off comparing the prices on an alternate spread of +7.5 when they become available, and we would pay up to -135 for that extra point of flexibility.

Ball State vs. Bowling Green odds

The most significant line movement to this point took place at Caesars, whose spread inflated from -5 to -6.5 within three hours of its initial opening on Sunday afternoon. The line also increased a half-point from -6 to -6.5 at bet365, but there has not yet been enough momentum to reach the key number of seven at any of our best sports betting sites.

There is a range of a one-point difference in the total among the sites with our best sportsbook promos. BetMGM is on the low end at 39.5, while FanDuel and DraftKings are the highest at 40.5. All other shops are in the middle with an O/U of 40. The Under has cashed in five of Ball State’s eight games, while Bowling Green has an O/U record of 4-4.